Maths could provide tsunami warnings
A new mathematical formula that could help predict the location and velocity of tsunami has been calculated by scientists at Newcastle University.
Research led by Professor Robin Johnson, of the School of Mathematics and Statistics, was prompted by the 2004 Boxing Day tsunami disaster that devastated coastal communities in Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India and Thailand.
In this instance, an earthquake in the depths of the ocean triggered a long surface wave that resulted in six massive wave fronts, one after the other.
Of these waves, it was the third and largest one that caused the most devastation, hitting the beaches with terrifying speed. Reaching a height of 20m, it lifted a train from its tracks as it travelled along the Sri Lankan coastline, killing almost 1,000 people.
Professor Johnson and his colleague Professor Adrian Constantin, based at the University of Vienna, Austria, suggest that by studying the behaviour of these long water waves, we may be able to predict where they might hit and how devastating they might be.
‘We found that the number and height of the tsunami waves hitting the shoreline depends critically on the shape of the initial surface wave in deep water,’ explained Professor Johnson.
‘From this it is possible to work out whether a “trough” or a “peak” is the leading wave. In the case of a trough then the familiar sight of the tide suddenly going out is the precursor to an approaching tsunami.
‘If a peak is the leading wave, there is no warning except a fast-approaching wall of water.
‘This could potentially provide vital information for areas facing an impending disaster.’
