A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies (2007)

Author(s): Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby RL

  • : EARWIG reference paper

Abstract: This paper describes the development of a weather generator for use in climate impact assessments of agricultural and water system management. The generator produces internally consistent series of meteorological variables including: rainfall, temperature, humidity, wind, sunshine, as well as derivation of potential evapotranspiration. The system produces series at a daily time resolution, using two stochastic models in series: first, for rainfall which produces an output series which is then used for a second model generating the other variables dependent on rainfall. The series are intended for single sites defined nationally across the UK at a 5km resolution, but can be generated to be representative across small catchments (<1000 km2). Scenarios can be generated for the control period (1961-1990) based on observed data, as well as for the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP02) scenarios for three time slices (2020’s, 2050’s and 2080’s). Future scenarios are generated by fitting the models to observations which have been perturbed by application of change factors derived from the UKCIP02 mean projected changes in that variable. These change factors are readily updated, as new scenarios become available, and with suitable calibration data the approach could be extended to any geographical region.

  • Type of Article: Refereed journal article
  • Short Title: EARWIG reference paper
  • Date: 2007-04-26
  • Journal: Environmental Modelling and Software
  • Volume: 22
  • Issue: 12
  • Pages: 1705-1719
  • Publisher: Pergamon
  • Publication type: Article
  • Bibliographic status: Published

Keywords: weather generator, stochastic, rainfall model, climate change, climate scenario


Alistair Ford
Researcher in Geomatics

Professor Hayley Fowler
Professor of Climate Change Impacts

Philip James
Senior Lecturer in GIS

Professor Chris Kilsby
Professor of Hydrology and Climate Change