Newcastle University

Hayley Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts in the Water Resource Systems Engineering Group in the School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences.

Background

Hayley Fowler is a hydroclimatologist with >10 years of experience in analysing the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological systems and has published more than 50 ISI-cited articles since 2000. She held a NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship (2006-10) examining the links between atmospheric circulation patterns, extreme rainfall and flooding and was recently awarded a Philip Leverhulme Prize (2011). She specialises in the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological and water resource systems, examining recent trends in extremes and future projections and their impacts on flood and drought risks. She has been instrumental in the analysis of climate model outputs and development of new downscaling techniques to bridge the gap between modellers and users of climate information (e.g. UKCP09 Weather Generator). She led the HYDRO sub-project of the AquaTerra FP6 Integrated Project from 2004-09 with a budget of €1M. She leads other funded research on extremes e.g. CONVEX (NERC CWC, 2011-14, PI) is developing high-resolution regional climate models to understand convective rainfall processes; SWERVE (EPSRC, 2008-11, PI) examined change to extreme weather events in SE London. She collaborates widely, particularly with NCAR, US, where she has held a number of visiting scientist positions.

Qualifications

Hayley did a BA in Geography at Cambridge University (1996) before moving to Newcastle University for an MSc in Water Resource Systems Engineering (1997) and PhD in climate change impacts on water resources (2000), staying at Newcastle for her post-doctoral training.

Roles and Responsibilities

She is leading the group's contribution to the British Science Festival which will be held in Newcastle in Sep 2013. She sits on School Executive Committee and one of the REF impact case-study panels. She acts as a Career Pathways Review Adviser for Research Staff in SAgE. 

Memberships  

Elected Member of British Hydrological Society main committee, 2004-2007
Honorary Secretary of the British Hydrological Society, 2006-2008
Member of  British Hydrological Society (1997-)
Member of American Geophysical Union (2005-)

NERC Peer Review College (2010–) 

Industrial Experience 

Hayley has experience of working with industry through consultancy contracts over the past 10 years covering climate change impact assessments, flood and drought risks, water resource modelling etc for: Royal Haskoning, WRc, Northumbrian Water Ltd, Willis Re., Environment Agency.

She has also been involved in the development of the UKCP09 Weather Generator for DEFRA.  

Outreach 

Hayley has been involved in many outreach activities including media interviews (print, radio and TV), public lectures, school's events, 6th form debates, cafe scientifique talks and has been consulted on the development of TV programmes on extreme weather and climate change. 

Research Interests

Hayley has more than 10 years experience analysing the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological systems and has published more than 50 ISI-cited articles since 2000.

She specialises in the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological and water resources systems, in particular examining recent trends in extremes and future projections and their impacts on flood and drought risks. She has also been instrumental in the analysis of climate model outputs and the development of new downscaling techniques, in particular the use of probabilistic methods and weather or rainfall generators, to bridge the gap between climate modellers and users of climate information.

Her current funded research includes four main themes:

i) improving projections of extreme rainfall change by developing high-resolution regional climate models to understand convective processes;

ii) examining climatic changes in the Karakoram Himalaya and their impacts on hydrology and water resources;

iii) producing new downscaling methods to enable improved climate information services for Europe; and

iv) developing web-based tools to allow downscaling methods to be used for climate change impact assessments outside academia.

Recent Invited Presentations

1. Fowler, H.J. Quantifying robust changes in extreme rainfall: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological extremes. Invited Seminar at Durham University Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, 15^th October 2012.
2. Fowler, H.J. Quantifying Robust Changes in Extreme Precipitation. Invited talk at “Quantifying robust changes in the water cycle on large scales”, Reading University, 26th-28th June 2012.
3. Fowler, H.J. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological extremes. Invited talk at CMOS-AMS Congress 2012, Montreal, Canada, 30^th May 2012.
4. Forsythe, N.D., Fowler, H.J. Assessment of cryosphere response to climate forcing in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) & Hindu Kush/Karakoram/Himalaya (HKH). Invited Keynote to the International symposium on Cryosphere and Climate Change (ISCCC-2012) at Manali (India), 2-4 April 2012.  
5. Fowler, H.J. New developments of a weather generator downscaling approach and its application to climate change impact studies for water resources management. Invited seminar to IMAGe, NCAR, US, 16^th February 2011.
6. Fowler, H.J. Climate change in the North-East. NE 3rd Climate Change Conference,
   Discovery Museum, Newcastle upon Tyne, 5^th June 2010.

Fellowships and other Prizes

NERC Postdoctoral fellowship, 2006-10

Philip Leverhulme Prize 2011 

PhD Students

Completed

2004-2009: Andrew Smith: A national scale rainfall analysis and event-based model of extremes for the UK

2007-2011: Jamie Ledingham: The estimation of flood frequency curves by mapping from rainfall frequency curves

2008-2012: Mari Jones: Characterising and modelling time-varying rainfall extremes and their climatic drivers. 

Current (start date) 

2007:   Alex Leathard: A Water Grid for the UK

2007:   Vesna Tripkovic: Quantifying and upscaling surface and subsurface runoff and nutrient flows under climate variability.

2008:   Nathan Forsythe: Investigating the impact of climate change on hydroclimatological variability and water resources in the Karakoram region of the Himalaya.

2009:   Selma De Brito Guerreiro: Climate change and water resources in Iberia

2011:   Elizabeth Lewis: Developing UK wide hydrological models for climate change impacts and analysis of floods and droughts

2011:   Blanca Garcia Navarrete: Broad scale urban flood risk analysis for climate impacts and adaptation 

Reviewer

Reviewer for: NSF, CFCAS, NERC, EPSRC, Irish EPA, IPCC AR4 (WGI and WGII), Swiss National Science Foundation, Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, LWEC.

Reviewer for >30 journals.

Chair

IMAGe Theme of the Year 2012, NCAR - Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach (budget $125K); 31 participants in summer school/workshop.

Selected Recent Research Grants 

1. FOWLER (2012-2014) Philip Leverhulme Prize. £70,000.
2. FOWLER et al. (2011-2014) CONVEX: Using Observational Evidence and Process Understanding to Improve Predictions of Extreme Rainfall Change. £415,632. NERC Changing Water Cycle
3. VAN OSS et al. (2011-2014) ECLISE: Enabling CLimate Information Services for Europe. FOWLER PI at Newcastle. £180,357. EU FP7.
4. HALL et al. (2008-2013) Earth systems engineering: sustainable systems engineering for adapting to global change. £1,312,129. EPSRC Platform Grant (FOWLER Co-I).
5. FOWLER et al. (2008-2011) SWERVE: Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator. £558,445. Part of the EPSRC Community Resilience to Extreme Weather Programme.
6. KILSBY et al. (2007-2010) UKCP09 Weather Generator. £185,840. DEFRA. FOWLER Co-I.
7. KILSBY et al. (2007-2010) FRACAS: a next generation national Flood Risk Assessment under climate ChAnge Scenarios. £204,382. Part of the NERC FREE programme. FOWLER Co-I.
8. FOWLER (2006-2010) Is flood risk increasing? Exploring the relationship between atmospheric circulation, extreme rainfall and flooding. £221,711. NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship Award.
9. GRATHWOHL et al. (2004-2009) AquaTerra “Integrated modelling of the river-sediment-soil-groundwater system; advanced tools for the management of catchment areas and river basins in the context of global change”. FP6 IP (€13M); FOWLER PI at Newcastle (£250,000) and led HYDRO sub-project (budget €1M) 

Teaching

Module Leader 

CEG8505: Climate Change: Earth Systems, Future Scenarios and Threats

Contributions to:

CEG2001: Design of Sustainable Engineering Systems 2 

CEG8514: Climate Change: Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation 

• Visser A, Kroes J, van Vliet M, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Broers HP. Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 2012, 127(1-4), 47-64.
• Visser A, Kroes J, van Vliet MTH, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Broers HP. Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment. In: Journal of Contaminant Hydrology: Groundwater Quality Management in a Rapidly Changing World. 2012, Eawag, Zurich, Switzerland: Elsevier BV.
• Jones M, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Blenkinsop S. An updated regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961-2009. In: BHS Third International Symposium:Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment. 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne.
• Majone B, Bovolo CI, Bellin A, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Modeling the impacts of future climate change on water resources for the Gallego river basin (Spain). Water Resources Research 2012, 48(1), W01512.
• van Vliet M, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Harpham C, Broers H, Fowler HJ. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe. Climatic Change 2011, 111(2), 249-277.
• Jones MR, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Blenkinsop S. An assessment of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall in the UK between 1961-2009. International Journal of Climatology 2013, (epub ahead of print).
• Viviroli D, Archer DR, Buytaert W, Fowler HJ, Greenwood GB, Hamlet AF, Huang Y, Koboltschnig G, Litaor MI, López-Moreno JI, Lorentz S, Schädler B, Schwaiger K, Vuille M, Woods R. Climate Change and Mountain Water Resources: A Global Overview of Regional Case Studies. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011, 15(2), 471-504.
• Viviroli D, Archer DR, Buytaert W, Fowler HJ, Greenwood GB, Hamlet AF, Huang Y, Koboltschnig G, Litaor MI, Lopez-Moreno JI, Lorentz S, Schadler B, Schreier H, Schwaiger K, Vuille M, Woods R. Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011, 15(2), 471-504.
• Hardy A, Forsythe ND, Fowler HJ. Development of a snow covered area product for the Western Himalaya using AVHRR imagery. Journal of Remote Sensing 2011. In Preparation.
• Blenkinsop S, Zhao Y, Quinn J, Berryman F, Thornes J, Baker C, Fowler HJ. Downscaling future wind hazard for SE London using the UKCP09 regional climate model ensemble. Climate Research 2012, 53(2), 141-156.
• Chen AS, Djordjevic S, Burton A, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Flood modelling and hazard assessment of extreme pluvial events in large urban areas. Proceedings of the ICE 2011. In Preparation.
• Fowler HJ, Tebaldi C, Blenkinsop S. Generating probabilistic estimates of climate change impacts on a hydrological system using a multi-model ensemble. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2011. In Preparation.
• Goderniaux P, Brouyere S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. How can large scale integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves. In: ModelCARE 2009: 7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling - Managing Groundwater and the Environment. 2011, Wuhan, China: IAHS.
• Blenkinsop S, Forlin L, Rigon R, Fowler HJ, Cordano E, Endrizzi S. Investigating the impacts of climate change on hydrologic variability in the Brenta catchment using a multi-model approach. Journal of Hydrology 2011. In Preparation.
• Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Fowler HJ, Orban P, Dassargues A. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios. Water Resources Research 2011, 47(1), W12516.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, Burton A, Goderniaux P, Brouyère S. Modelling transient climate change with a stochastic weather generator: Projected temperature changes for the Geer catchment, Belgium. Climatic Change 2011. In Preparation.
• Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Archer DR. Opportunities from remote sensing for supporting water resources management in village/valley scale catchments in the Upper Indus Basin. Water Resources Management 2012, 26(4), 845-871.
• Burton A, Fowler HJ. Plausible future climate rainfall scenarios for vulnerability studies of hydrological systems. Journal of Hydrology 2011. In Preparation.
• Fowler HJ. Simulation of impacts of future climate change scenarios on water resources for the Gallego river basin (Spain). . Water Resources Research 2011. Submitted.
• Forsythe N, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Spatial characterisation of present climatology and interannual variability in the Upper Indus Basin from MODIS satellite data products. Submitted to Mountain Research and Development, March 2011 2011.
• Sharif M, Archer DR, Fowler HJ, Forsythe ND. Trends in magnitude and timing of flow in the Upper Indus Basin. Water Resources Research 2011. Submitted.
• Walsh CL, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Fowler HJ, Glenis V, Kilsby CG, Manning L. Use of probabilistic climate scenarios to assess water resources in the Thames catchment. Water Resources Research 2011. In Preparation.
• Forsythe N, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Assessing climate pressures on glacier-melt and snowmelt-derived runoff in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram sector of the Upper Indus Basin. In: Proceedings of the BHS Third International Symposium: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment (BHS). 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
• Wilkinson SM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby CG. Challenges for the Assessment of Future Design Wind. In: 9th UK Conference on Wind Engineering. 2010, Bristol University, UK.
• Viviroli D, Archer D, Buytaert W, Fowler H, Greenwood G, Hamlet A, Huang Y, Koboltschnig G, Litaor M, López-Moreno J, Lorentz S, Schädler B, Schwaiger K, Vuille M, Woods R. Climate change and mountain water resources: Overview and recommendations for research, management and politics. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2010, 7(3), 2829-2895.
• Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Majone B, Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Fowler HJ, Bellin A, Burton A, Barceló D, Grathwohl P, Barth JAC. Climate Change, Water Resources and Pollution in the Ebro Basin – Towards an integrated approach. In: Barceló, D., Petrovic, M, ed. The Ebro River Basin. Berlin; New York: Springer, 2010, pp.295-329.
• Fowler HJ, Wilby RL, Cooley D, Sain SR, Thurston M. Detecting changes in UK precipitation extremes using climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk. In: Proceedings of the BHS Third International Symposium: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment (BHS). 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
• Fowler HJ, Gutierrez A, Marani M, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Stollsteiner P, Brouyère S, Goderniaux P, vanVliet M, Zanetti S, Girard JF, Dautrebande S, Baes D, Mouvet C, Baran N, Baltassat JM, Bovolo CI, Bellin A, Majone B, Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Boni M, Jouin F, Klinka T, Janniche GS, Albrechtsen HJ, Wuilleumier A, Gigleux S, Banton O. HYDRO - Climate and water cycle at the basin scale. In: Finkel, M., Barth, J., Grathwohl, P, ed. Advanced Tools and Models to Improve River Basin Management in Europe in the Context of Global Change: AquaTerra. London, UK: IWA Publishing, 2010, pp.3-12.
• Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Majone B, Bellin A, Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on the Ebro River Basin. In: Barceló, D., Petrovic, M, ed. The Ebro River Basin. Berlin; New York: Springer, 2010, pp.47-75.
• Wilby RL, Fowler HJ. Regional Climate Downscaling. In: Fai, F., Lopez, A., New, M, ed. Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2010, pp.34-85.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Supplement to: Brown S, Boorman P, McDonald R, Murphy J, 2009. Interpretation for use of surface wind speed projections from the 11-member Met Office Regional Climate Model ensemble. UK: Defra, 2010. UKCP Technical Note.
• Goderniaux P, Brouyere S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. How can large scale integrated surface - subsurface hydrological model be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves. In: Wang, Y.X, ed. Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling: Managing Groundwater and the Environment. Wuhan, China: China University of Geosciences Press, 2009, pp.137-140.
• Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby RL. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software 2007, 22(12), 1705-1719.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27(12), 1595-1610.
• Burger CM, Kolditz O, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S. Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain). Environmental Pollution 2007, 148(3), 842-854.
• Kilsby CG, Tellier SS, Fowler HJ, Howels TR. Hydrological impacts of climate change on the Tejo and Guadiana Rivers. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(3), 1175-1189.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Stunell J. Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(3), 1115-1126.
• Ekström M, Jones PD, Fowler HJ, Lenderink G, Buishand A, Conway D. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(3), 1069-1083.
• Gerzabek MH, Barceló D, Bellin A, Rijnaarts HHM, van Veen J, Darmendrail D, Fowler HJ, Négrel P, Frank E, Grathwohl P, Kuntz D, Barth JAC. The integrated project AquaTerra of the EU sixth framework lays foundations for better understanding of river–sediment–soil–groundwater systems. Journal of Environmental Management 2007, 84(2), 237–243.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future river flows in northwest England. Climatic Change 2007, 80(3-4), 337-367.
• Barth JAC, Freitag H, Fowler HJ, Karim A, Ingle C, McPhail C, Smith AP. Water fluxes and their control on the terrestrial carbon balance: Results from a stable isotope study on the Clyde Watershed (Scotland). Applied Geochemistry 2007, 22(12), 2684-2694.
• Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Smith AP, Ekstrom M, Kilsby CG. Can regional climate models reproduce the historic magnitude and frequency of severe UK extreme rainfall events, and how will this change under global warming?. In: Proceedings of the British Hydrological Society 9th National Hydrology Symposium. 2006, Durham: British Hydrological Society.
• Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate 2006, 19(17), 4276–4293.
• Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Hydro-climatological variability in the Upper Indus Basin and implications for water resources. In: Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change: Impact Assessment and Decision Making. 2005, Foz do Iguaço, Brazil: International Association of Hydrological Sciences.
• Fowler HJ, Ekström M, Kilsby CG, Jones PD. New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 1. Assessment of control climate. Journal of Hydrology 2005, 300(1-4), 212-233.
• Ekström M, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Jones PD. New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 2. Future estimates and use in impact studies. Journal of Hydrology 2005, 300(1-4), 234-251.
• Archer D, Fowler HJ. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2004, 8(1), 47-61.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000. International Journal of Climatology 2003, 23(11), 1313-1334.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 2003, 30(13), 1720.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE. Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system. Water Resources Research 2003, 39(8), 1222.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. A weather-type approach to analysing water resource drought in the Yorkshire region from 1881 to 1998. Journal of Hydrology 2002, 262(1-4), 177-192.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation: A study of climatic variability in Northern England. International Journal of Climatology 2002, 22(7), 843-866.
• Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE. A stochastic rainfall model for the assessment of regional water resource systems under changed climatic conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2000, 4(2), 263-281.
• Forsythe N, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity in the Upper Indus Basin to Interannual Climate Variability and Potential Change Using MODIS Satellite Data Products. Mountain Research and Development 2012, 32(1), 16-29.
• Walsh C, Fowler H, Kilsby C, Black A. Role of hydrology in managing consequences of a changing global environment. Hydrology Research 2012, 43(5), 548-550.
• Coulthard TJ, Ramirez J, Fowler HJ, Glenis V. Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2012, 16(11), 4401-4416.
• Ekstrom M, Kuruppu N, Wilby RL, Fowler HJ, Chiew FHS, Dessai S, Young WJ. Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework-Applications in the water sector. Global Environmental Change 2013, 23(1), 115-129.