Newcastle University

Real Time Flood Forecasting and Warning Systems

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This course describes the principles and practice of real time flood forecasting and warning. The course covers overall system design, hydrological data systems, quantitative precipitation forecasting, flood forecasting methods for rivers and coasts, forecast uncertainty, warning systems and technology, emergency response and planning, and decision making under uncertainty. Current practice in the UK and internationally will be illustrated through case studies, and progress towards achieving best practice in the UK discussed.

Flood risk is increasing due to the growth in people and property living in flood plains, and the possible increase in flood hazard associated with climate change. Real-time flood forecasting and warning has become an important component of flood risk management strategies that seek to mitigate the impacts of floods on communities at risk by issuing timely and accurate forecasts and warnings of impending flooding. The aims of the course are therefore to:

• describe the principles and practice of real-time flood forecasting and warning (RTFFW);
• illustrate current practice with examples of RTFFW in the UK and internationally;
• define future RTFFW best practice and how to move towards it.

Course Objectives

On completion of the course, delegates will:

• understand tge requirements for RTF in different hydrological regimes;
• have hands on experience of variety of RTF systems, their characteristics and capabilities.
• be able to deploy the understanding of requirements and capabilities of methods in operating RTF systems;
• have competence to specify suitable RTF systems.

Course Outline

• Day 1
  • Overview. Role of real time flood forecasting and warning in flood risk management.
  • Benefits, requirements and performance.
  • Developing and using the flood forecast. Physical systems, processes, lags.
  • Component models, forecast uncertainty.
• Day 2
  • Rainfall Forecasting: rainfall, radar, models.
  • Real-time Flood Forecasting Methods I: empirical, transfer function and ANN models.
  • Real-time Flood Forecasting Methods II: rainfall runoff models - conceptual and physically-based.
  • Real-time Flood Forecasting Methods III: flood routing models.
• Day 3
  • Coastal Flooding: storm surge forecasting.
  • NFFS - the EA National Flood Forecasting System: overview and regional application.
  • Computer practical: rainfall-runoff modelling.
• Day 4
  • The Joint Environment Agency and Met Office Flood Forecasting Centre for England and Wales.
  • The Morpeth Flood: physical and emergency response aspects.
  • Real-time Flood Forecasting Methods IV: Predictive uncertainty and its use to improve decision-making.
  • VIRTUAL FLOOD: A simulated flood event and warning response exercise.
• Day 5
  • Real-time Flood Forecasting Methods V: Data Assimilation 1 - Application of the Kalman Filter and Ensemble Kalman Filter.
  • Real-time Flood Forecasting Methods V: Data Assimilation 2 - Combining data from different sensors (Radar/raingauges/satellite).
  • Case Studies of international real time flood forecasting and warning systems.
  • Review of course and wrap up.

Who is the course aimed at?

A course for scientists, engineers and managers who have a professional interest in how real time flood forecasts are generated, and who require a deeper understanding of how decisions are made to issue flood warnings based on uncertain flood forecasts.

Presenters

School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences

• Prof Enda O'Connell (Course Leader)
• Prof Chris Kilsby
• Dr Vedrana Kutija
• Dr Qiuhua Liang
• Dr Greg O'Donnell
• Dr Geoff Parkin

Industry Professionals

• To be confirmed

[ Book online ]

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