Newcastle University

Hazards & environmental change

The ‘Hazard and environmental change’ theme provides quantified evidence of hazards (typically environmental, but recent work - for example on interdependent infrastructure - has seen consideration of manmade hazards) and the drivers of long term change.

The first era of climate impacts assessment, in which system managers undertook preliminary scoping of the magnitude of the challenge of adaptation to climate change, is now drawing to a close. System modellers (for example of floods and water resources) and engineers are now making more stringent demands for multivariate high resolution (spatial and temporal) transient climate information, together with an assessment of associated uncertainties.  

CESER are at the forefront of delivery of statistical models and accompanying tools for climate downscaling, having helped to develop and deliver the UK’s new generation of probabilistic climate change scenarios (UKCP09). However, outstanding challenges remain in the treatment of spatial correlation, development of transient climate change scenarios, the representation of variability at multiple scales and the estimation of extremes, which we are researching.

Key publications