Newcastle University

Integrated Systems Demonstrations: Cities

At the centre of our research activities sit our flagship ‘Integrated Demonstrations’.  These bring together the themes of our research activities in place based analyses in three areas that are outstanding examples of coupled human, natural and technological systems:  

(i) Infrastructure systems, 
(ii) Catchments, and,  
(iii) Urban areas.  

These large scale integrated demonstrations are essential in order to test the methods developed elsewhere in the CESER research programme and to demonstrate and communicate the contribution that they will make to improved decision making. Our integrated demonstrations represent the culmination of the research, interacting continuously with the other themes, so testing and demonstration can stimulate new ideas and approaches.  Through our funded portfolio of projects we have major systems modelling projects under way in London, in the Eden, Belford and Hodder catchments, the East Anglian coast, and at a number of engineered slopes. 

The Urban Integrated Assessment Facility

Cities are concentrations of vulnerability to the harmful impacts of climate change. They are also, directly and indirectly, responsible for the majority of the world’s emissions of greenhouse gasses. 50% of the world’s population lives in cities, a number that is set to increase to 60% by 2030. For all of these reasons, cities are on the front line in responding to the threats of climate change.

In the UK and around the world there is a growing awareness of the role that cities have to play in mitigating and adapting to climate change. A wide variety of measures are now being considered and piloted, including schemes to transform urban energy systems, reduce transport emissions, retrofit buildings, conserve water, build resilience to flooding and prepare for heat waves. These individual policies need to be implemented as part of an integrated strategy that can steer cities towards low carbon and well adapted futures. To do so requires understanding of the processes that are driving long term change in cities and the ways in which they interact. We recognise demographic, economic, land use, technological and behavioural changes alongside climate change as drivers that will shape the future of cities.

‌The Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research has developed an Urban Integrated Assessment Facility (UIAF) which simulates the main processes of long term change at the scale of whole cities. The UIAF couples a series of simulation modules within a scenario and policy analysis framework. The UIAF is driven by global and national scenarios of climate and socio-economic change, which feed into models of the regional economy and land use change. Simulations of climate, land use and socio-economic change inform analysis of carbon dioxide emissions (focussing upon energy, personal transport and freight transport) and the impacts of climate change (focussing on heat waves, droughts and floods).  The final component of the IUAF is the integrated assessment tool that provides the interface between the modelling components, the results and the end-user.  This tool enables a number of adaptation and mitigation options to be explored within a common framework. The UIAF has been developed for and applied to London, yielding the following insights: 

• Economic drivers of long term change: A multi-sectoral regional economic model has been used to generate long term projections of employment and Gross Value Added in London. Our base line simulation shows employment in London growing by about 800,000 by 2030, driven by demographic changes and changing working practices. Business and financial services, along with science-based services are expected to grow most rapidly, with heavy industry diminishing. 

• Land use change: Future patterns of land use between now and 2100 have been simulated for all of London and the Thames Gateway. The new land use model simulates the effects of changes in employment, the transport network and land use planning policy. We have simulated four alternative land use futures for London: (i) a baseline case, which applied current policies and trends in future (ii) ‘Eastern axis’ in which employment opportunities, transport infrastructure development and a preference for lower density living stimulate substantial population growth in east London and the Thames Gateway (iii) ‘Centralisation’ in which employment and population growth is concentrated in central London, with a corresponding increase in density (iv) ‘Suburbanisation’ in which employment remains strong in central London, but expands into the suburbs, focused on existing hubs (e.g. Croydon). To steer land use change away from the baseline towards alternative futures requires major shifts in land use planning, transport connectivity and capacity, and employment opportunities. 

• Carbon dioxide emissions: Various scenarios of carbon dioxide emissions from the energy use, personal transport and freight transport have been analysed. Growth in population, economic activity and mobility are potentially strong upward drivers of emissions. We have analysed portfolios of emissions reduction policies that are currently under consideration, but find that more radical policies are required in order to meet the GLA’s target for 60% emissions reductions by 2025. Their success depends upon the availability of carbon-neutral electricity supply and upon progressive physical changes to urban form and function. 

• Heat waves: A new land surface scheme has been introduced into the Hadley Centre’s Regional Climate Model in order to represent the urban heat island effect. Using a weather generator adapted from UKCP09 we found that by the 2050s, one third of London's summer may exceed the current Met Office heat wave temperature threshold. We have analysed the potential for different spatial patterns of development to reduce the risk from heat waves. 

• Droughts: The UKCP09 rainfall scenarios for the Thames and Lee catchments were combined with catchment hydrology models and simulation of the water resource management system. London is very vulnerable to changes in the surface water regime, which will be increasingly stressed by climate change and population growth. Although new storage facilities can maximise exploitation of the surface water resource, on their own they are insufficient in the long term and will need to be accompanied by vigorous demand management and provision of new resources from desalination or inter-basin transfers. 

• Flooding: A model of flooding in the tidal Thames floodplain, which is protected by the Thames Barrier and a system of flood defences, has been used to simulate the effects of sea level rise and changing flows in the river Thames. This has been combined with our simulations of land use changes, which have profound effect on the magnitude of increase in flood risk in future. The ‘Eastern Axis’ land use scenario leads to a three-fold increase in flood risk by 2100, whilst the risk doubles  for the ‘Suburbanisation’ scenario. We have tested the effectiveness of various options to improve flood defences and enhance resilience to flooding when it occurs. 

By analysing demographic, economic and land use changes, we have quantified how socio-economic changes determine how hard it will be to reduce emissions and how severe impacts of climate change may be. We have quantified the synergies and conflicts between adaptation to climate change and mitigation of carbon dioxide emissions, for example by examining the contribution that urban energy use makes to the urban heat island. We have used the UIAF to begin to understand how policies can be devised that yield benefits in relation to a number of objectives and avoid undesirable side-effects.

Throughout the course of the Tyndall Centre research, we have worked with stakeholders in London, including the Greater London Authority, Transport for London, the Environment Agency and Thames Water, to understand the problems facing decision makers in London and demonstrate how the UIAF can help to analyse solutions. Though the research has been based upon London, it makes use of datasets that are available in all UK cities, so the approach could be used to develop and assess responses to climate change elsewhere in the UK. 

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More coming soon...

Key publications