Our research is improving the forecasting of climate hazards such as floods and droughts.
We do this by developing high-resolution climate scenarios through new downscaling methods. We test options for adaptation to future weather extremes, especially rainfall, wind, heat and associated flood, drought and storm risks.
Our scenarios combine stochastic space-time modelling of extreme weather with high-resolution climate models, including those that can represent convective rainfall.
We developed the UKCP09 weather generator. We have further developed the generator into a cloud-enabled spatial weather simulator and an urban weather generator. We continue this work through involvement in the next-generation UKCP18 scenarios.
Our projects are global in scope. We investigate changes in rainfall extremes and their drivers, and their effects on flood risk in both urban and catchment settings, with practical applications to improve adaptation to climate change.
We're members of:
- the Global Water and Energy Exchanges Project, addressing a number of the grand challenges on climate extremes set out by the World Climate Research Programme
- the Willis Research Network, where we address the changing global flood regime and its impacts on the insurance industry
Within the UK, we investigate the impacts of climate change on national infrastructure through the EPSRC Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium.
Our core membership of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research provides new policy-oriented challenges for our climate impacts analysis.
- Urban Flood Resilience
- Professor Hayley Fowler
- Dr Russell Adams
- Dr Stephen Blenkinsop
- Dr Steven Chan
- Dr Xiaofeng Li
- Dr Selma Guerreiro
- Dr Elizabeth Lewis
- Dr Steve Birkinshaw
- Dr Nicolas Kirchner-Bossi
- Dr Nathan Forsythe
- Prof Richard Dawson
- Dr Claire Walsh
- Prof Chris Kilsby
- Vassilis Glenis
- Alistair Ford
- Dr Shifeng Wang