Newcastle University

At the same time, an efficient and reliable infrastructure is essential to the growth and competitiveness of the UK economy and to quality of life and the environment.

Now a world-leading team of engineers and scientists has been pulled together to analyze the risks in the face of an uncertain future and suggest ways in which we can protect our infrastructure against potential meltdown.

Led by Newcastle University, the team will be analyzing how this can be done at the same time as meeting ambitious targets for carbon emissions reduction from energy, transport and other infrastructures.

Funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, the £6.1million programme aims to address the fundamental issue of ensuring a sustainable infrastructure for the UK.

Professor Jim Hall, programme lead and Director of the Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research in Newcastle University, said it was crucial “to think ahead about the situations we might end up regretting in the future”.

“The whole process of strategic planning is fraught with uncertainties,” he explained.

“What we can’t do is plan for one unique predicted future because if we do that we risk getting things seriously wrong.

“Instead, we will be developing computer simulation models that will enable complex national infrastructure systems to be tested for a wide range of possible future scenarios.

“Testing infrastructure systems in a virtual environment will help to realistically plan for a range of possible futures so we are not suddenly caught unawares and in a situation where it is already too late to react.

“Our aim is to show that by taking a ‘system of systems’ approach – that is, to look at the interaction of all our key networks – we can achieve a sustainable outcome.”

An estimated £150 billion has been invested in the UK’s infrastructure over the last five years and experts predict a further £40-50 billion will be needed every year between now and 2030 in order to maintain current levels of service.

Privatisation of key services such as water and energy, new expectations that many decisions are to be taken locally and the fact that information and communications technologies are now integrated into every one of these key networks means the whole system is vulnerable.

Understanding that vulnerability will be key, explains Professor Hall. Using powerful new technology developed by the researchers from seven of the UK’s top universities, the team will explore huge volumes of data to analyse the full range of possible future scenarios.

This will include the IPCC data on future climate change and the potential risks associated with flooding and other severe weather scenarios.  Models of the UK’s five key infrastructures will be put together by world experts in each of those systems, but for the first time these different network simulations will interact with one another.

The team will also analyse the entire census dataset to predict what households will be doing in the future and how this might impact on demand for infrastructure. Regional data on economic activity will be used to understand the benefits that infrastructure yields to the economy.

It is the first time a project of this scale has been undertaken and the team hope it will become a vital tool to inform and assist the development of sustainable infrastructure systems across the globe.

The project is backed by an extra £1.6million of funding from industry.  Many of the UK industries involved are hoping that the research will help to make their global businesses more competitive as well as making the services they provide to the UK economy and society more efficient.

Professor Hall adds: “The public has an intuitive sense of what constitutes a modern and efficient infrastructure. They know how it contributes to quality of life and the environment, as well as to the economy and they recognize that infrastructure systems are subject to risks from natural and man-made hazards.

“Most of us, for example, have experienced delays due to flooding on the roads or railways, or electricity failures following a storm, but at the moment these are still relatively infrequent events.

“However, the uncertainty about the way in which current systems will interact and how long they can be made to continue to work for us means there is no reason why these standards should persist unless we act strategically.

“What is certain is that decisions are being made now that have long-lasting consequences for the future and we need to make sure they are the right ones.”