Newcastle University

Representatives of the world’s governments meeting in Durban this week are being advised that immediate action is needed to reduce the vulnerability of communities worldwide likely to be worst affected by the impacts of climate change.

In a paper published today in the academic journal Global Environmental Change, leading marine researchers from across the world are proposing a novel framework for helping the millions of people whose lives will be most affected by a warming climate.

Their proposal comes as representatives of 194 nations gather in Durban, South Africa, for the critical 17th Conference of the Parties (COP) of the signatories to the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change.

Based on a study of 1500 households in 29 coastal communities fringing the east African coast and islands of the western Indian Ocean, the researchers – including Newcastle University’s Professor Selina Stead - have developed a method for identifying the communities most vulnerable to climate change and prioritizing actions at local, national and international level to help them.

“In this region, climate change is not some distant possibility far into the future - it has already happened,” explains research lead Dr Josh Cinner of the ARC Centre of Excellence in Coral Reef Studies (CoECRS) and James Cook University in Australia

“Extreme coral bleaching killed 90 per cent of the corals in some places and for the people whose lives rely on them – for food or employment – the impact can be devastating."

Professor Stead, Prof of Marine Governance and Environmental Science in the University’s School of Marine Science and Technology, adds: "This paper recognises that policy makers need pragmatic advice about what actions can help vulnerable human communities to prepare for impacts of climate change and demonstrates how scientific evidence can be used to find potential solutions for working towards sustainable marine ecosystem management.”

The research proposes a systematic way to assess the vulnerability of coastal communities to loss of coral reefs and fish stocks due to climatic factors.

“We want people to understand that every community is different, that there are no ‘one-size fits all’ solutions when it comes to adapting to climate change,” Dr Cinner says. “Each situation is unique, requiring a flexible approach.”

Hundreds of millions of people worldwide depend on coral reefs – for livelihoods in fishing and tourism, for food and for coastal protection.  However, not all reefs are equally vulnerable to impacts like bleaching, and not all communities are equally dependent on reefs for their living. Some have greater capacity to adapt to sudden changes than others.

The team studied communities that depend on coral reefs but say in their paper it is a general approach which can be applied equally to agricultural, desert, mountain and other communities, who will also be exposed to major changes in temperature and extreme events by the mid-century.

Professor Stead adds: “It will take a long time to implement global action to reduce carbon emissions, but action can be taken right away to help reduce the impacts on the world’s most vulnerable. COP17 provides a clear opportunity to make an early start.”

“Vulnerability of coastal communities to key impacts of climate change on coral reef fisheries” by J.E. Cinner, T.R. McClanahan, N.A.J. Graham, T.M. Daw, J. Maina, S.M. Stead, A. Wamukota, K. Brown and O. Bodin appears in the current issue of Global Environmental Change.