This theme provides quantified evidence of hazards and the drivers of long term change.
Our work typically focuses on environmental hazards. Recent work has also looked at man-made hazards.
The first era of climate impacts assessment is now drawing to a close. This involved system managers doing preliminary scoping of the magnitude of the challenge of adaptation to climate change.
Now, system modellers and engineers have more stringent demands. Multivariate high resolution (spatial and temporal) transient climate information is required. There is also a need for an assessment of associated uncertainties.
We are at the forefront of delivery of statistical models and accompanying tools for climate downscaling./p>
We've helped to develop and deliver the UK’s new generation of probabilistic climate change scenarios (UKCP09).
Challenges remain, and we are researching:
- the treatment of spatial correlation
- the development of transient climate change scenarios
- the representation of variability at multiple scales
- the estimation of extremes
- City scale heat risk assessment
- Rainfall models for assessing climate impacts
- Earth observation to capture heatwave dynamics
- Development of a model for UK extreme winds
- Modelling daily rainfall over the Danube basin
- Community Resilience to Extreme Weather
- Himalayan climate futures
- Water resources for West Africa
- RESNET: Resilient Electricity Networks
Predicting rainfall statistics in England and Wales using atmospheric circulation variables
Kilsby CG, Cowpertwait PSP, O'Connell PE, Jones PD
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