Modelling, Evidence & Policy
Modelling, Evidence and Policy
Our Research
We use numerical and conceptual approaches to provide objective evidence for use in management and policy making.
We investigate complex biological, medical, ecological and socio-ecological systems, and engage with policy processes.
We collaborate with experts from academic and non-academic sectors to maximise the value of our research. We address real-world challenges.
We collect data and model processes for ecosystems where biology, environment and decision-making interact.
Our impact on ecosystems policy
Key foci are:
- conflict and synergies between human objectives and conservation interests
- co-creation of research to inform global biodiversity policy processes, especially those on species conservation
- modelling disease in wildlife, livestock and human systems to identify pathways to mitigate disease
Research Areas
We have expertise in data collection and analysis in complex biological and sociological systems. We use the derived understanding to inform practical conservation, management and policy decisions.
Our blog
Check out our Modelling, Evidence and Policy blog.
Our Group
We follow a joint research and teaching agenda reflecting shared interests in Modelling, Evidence and Policy and how to integrate across those in a neat pipeline.
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Dr Sarah Barlow
I am interested in plant ecology in general particularly plant-herbivore and plant-pollinator interactions in a conservation/restoration context; functional connectivity within ecological networks; and conservation management. Within this context, I am interested in developing e-ecology technologies that can be used for pollinator/invertebrate surveillance in field studies.
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Dr Rike Bolam
Rike uses publicly available data as well as evidence synthesis methods to identify how stop the loss of biodiversity and achieve sustainable development most efficiently. She uses modelling tools such as Bayesian networks and Random Forest.
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Laura Braunholtz - PhD student
Title of PhD: ‘Roads through rainforests: measuring and mitigating biodiversity impacts in Brunei’. Contact: L.D.Braunholtz2@newcastle.ac.uk
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Professor Giles Budge
Giles applies molecular methods to understand the biology and control of pathogens, using novel diagnostics to support decision making in the field.
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Liam Butler - PhD student
Title of PhD: ‘Upscaling upland hydrology-vegetation bi-directional interaction in the Rede catchment’. Contact: L.Butler3@newcastle.ac.uk
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Theodora Commandeur – PhD student
Title of PhD: 'Assessing the interaction of diet and forage availability with an emerging bee disease'
Contact: T.Commandeur1@newcastle.ac.uk -
Tom Crocker - PhD student
Title of PhD: ‘Modelling crop disease’
Contact: T.Crocker1@newcastle.ac.uk -
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Alex Elsy - PhD Student, University of Stirling
PhD title: 'The impact of liana proliferation on recovery of biomass in secondary tropical forests'. Funded through NERC DTP IAPETUS. Main supervisor: Dr Daisy Dent, Co-Supervisor: Dr Marion Pfeifer. Timeline: October 2018 - March 2022. Contact: a.d.elsy@stir.ac.uk. Twitter is @_AlexElsy
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Dr Clare Fitzsimmons
Clare is developing novel social network analysis and futures techniques to explore marine resource management and governance through large-scale regional work across the Caribbean.
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Dr Rachel Gaulton
My research is focused on the use of remote sensing technology (ground-based, airborne and satellite) in measuring and monitoring vegetation structure and dynamics, especially in forested and agricultural environments.
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Garima Gupta - PhD student
Title of PhD: 'Conservation of Galliformes (pheasants, partridges and quails) in the Greater Himalayan region'
Contact: g.gupta2@newcastle.ac.uk -
Dr Sergio Guerreiro Milheiras
My research focusses on the complex relationships between people and nature on which our well-being ultimately depends. I am particularly interested in understanding how anthropogenic disturbance influences biodiversity and the provision of the ecosystem goods and services that benefit people at different scales, especially within the context of forest-rich and multifunctional tropical landscapes.
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Yaizi Gutierrez – PhD student
Title of PhD: 'Fungicide resistance in Septoria, a major pathogen of wheat'
Contact: Y.Gutierrez-Vazquez2@newcastle.ac.uk -
Dr Philippa Holder
Philippa is interested in the causes of declines in wild and managed bee populations, specifically the impacts of pesticides and disease. She is currently researching Chronic Bee Paralysis, an emerging infectious disease of honey bees, with the aim to identify drivers of this disease and develop disease management strategies.
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Robin Loveridge - Research Associate
Originally from a natural sciences and applied conservation background, Robin has returned to academia to explore the human dimensions of development-conservation challenges.
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Dr Louise Mair
Louise’s research focuses on the prevention of species extinctions. She is working with Phil to understand what the barriers are to species conservation, and to develop a strategic approach to conservation planning for threatened species.
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Dr Phil McGowan
Phil has a special interest in evidence-informed species conservation. He seeks to provide research that will inform both species management (particularly in Asia) and global policy, such as Convention on Biological Diversity. Phil served as co-chair of the policy sub-committee of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature’s Species Survival Commission until 2016. He presently chairs its Post-2020 Biodiversity Targets Task Force.
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Dr Aileen Mill
Aileen uses spatial and temporal modelling approaches to analyse complex systems. Aileen’s research interests are in applied biology with policy relevance focusing on vertebrate species population management.
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Alain Senghor K. Ngute - External PhD student – School of Science and Engineering, University of the Sunshine Coast, Australia
Title of PhD: ‘Investigating the relationship between liana abundance and tropical forest recovery’. Contact: kamdoum.senghor@gmail.com
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Professor Sarah O'Brien
My research interests in food safety include developing better estimates of foodborne disease burden, modernising surveillance methods, developing a better understanding of food-related norovirus and unravelling the epidemiology of Campylobacter infection.
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Dr Zarah Pattison
My broad research interests include responses of invasive alien plants to changes in climate and how this impacts native communities. I'm also interested in the competitive effects between dominant native and invasive alien plant species at varying spatial and temporal scales.
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Dr Marion Pfeifer
Marion couples conceptual and analytical approaches from remote sensing, ecology and socio-ecology to analyse terrestrial systems, their functions and services. She is particularly interested in human-modified tropical landscapes.
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Professor Pete Robertson
Pete undertakes research on the drivers and consequences of large-scale ecological change, and the conflicts that arise from these processes. His research interests include the effects of invasive non-native species and wildlife disease with a particular focus on birds and mammals.
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Ben Rowland - PhD student
Title of PhD: 'The epidemiology of Chronic Bee Paralysis Virus: modelling for management intervention'
Contact: B.W.Rowland1@newcastle.ac.uk -
Professor Steve Rushton
Steve is a modeller interested in analysing the structure and functioning of complex biological systems. He works in ecological, environmental, epidemiological clinical systems seeking to use modelling approaches to tackle applied problems.
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Siti Binti Md Saad – PhD student
Title of PhD: 'Population ecology of rats, small mammals and birds in agricultural contexts'
Contact: S.A.R.B.Md-Saad2@newcastle.ac.uk -
Dr Roy Sanderson
Roy’s interests are in modelling complex ecological systems, using multivariate statistical models, simulation and Monte-Carlo techniques, across a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. This includes both plant and invertebrate species assemblages, genomics and proteomics data, as well as population modelling of individual species.
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Becca Sargent - PhD student
Title of PhD: ‘Room to roam and hotspots of conservation conflicts: Lions, ungulates and people in the matrix’.
Contact: R.K.Sargent2@newcastle.ac.uk -
Dr Mark Shirley
Mark is a lecturer in biological systems modelling. His research interests include graph theory, process-based modelling, wildlife conservation, and epidemiological modelling. He has published on bovine TB in badgers, epidemiology in real-world networks, health economics, and pest management and control.
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Dr Gavin Stewart
Gavin is Director of the evidence synthesis lab within the Modelling, Evidence and Policy group. Work focuses on evidence synthesis (by means of systematic review and meta-analysis) and evidence contextualisation (by means of systems models and decision support tools). He is a full-time dad, fell runner, cave rescue team member and likes drinking beer and whisky. Google Scholar Profile
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Jessica Ward - PhD student
Title of PhD: ‘Modelling sociality in carnivores’.
Contact: j.k.ward@ncl.ac.uk
Past PhD students:
- Rike Bolam - Addressing uncertainty and limited data in conservation decision-making.
- Olaf Booy – Predicting the future invasive non-native species in Great Britain – the role of invasion pathways.
- Inaki Deza-Cruz – Epidemiology of Dengue Fever and Chickungyna.
- Simone Mordue – Behaviour and ecology of natterer’s bats.
- Eli Patterson – Effects of organic and conventional farming on invertebrate community composition.
- Kirsty Lees - Movement patterns of the European lobster Homarus gammarus: investigating the effects of habitat use and behaviour patterns on catchability.
Global Impact
Our research takes us across the globe as we gather data to help conserve ecosystems and protect vulnerable species by informing policy. The map shows the global impact our work is having.