CEG8523 : Modelling and Forecasting of Floods
- Offered for Year: 2019/20
- Module Leader(s): Professor Chris Kilsby
- Lecturer: Prof. Enda O'Connell, Mr Vassilis Glenis
- Visiting Lecturer: Dr Jaime Amezaga
- Owning School: Engineering
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
|Semester 2 Credit Value:||10|
The aims of the module are to develop a strategic and practical understanding of flood risk and its management. This module introduces different frameworks for flood estimation and modelling from statistical to simulation, from data driven to physically based modelling and put them in wider context of flood risk management. Students will learn how to use industry standard flood estimation and modelling techniques. They will also learn principles and current practices of real time flood forecasting and warning (RTFFW). This will incorporate:
* an understanding of flood risks affecting towns, coasts and estuaries;
* understanding of the economic aspects of FRM and their interaction with sustainability, mediated by governance, policy and planning
* a knowledge and understanding of the options and measures available for managing flood risk;
* theory and practice of flood risk estimation, modelling and forecasting.
Outline Of Syllabus
Flood risk: sources, description, variety: conceptualization by Source:Pathway:Receptor
Aims of flood risk management, in the context of sustainability.
Institutions and governance of FRM : examples worldwide
Economic instruments: benefit-cost analysis, dealing with uncertainty; Value and discounting;
Economic losses due to flooding
Options for FRM: Portfolios of measures: structural and non- structural approaches; : land use planning and resilience
Rural FRM: agricultural development policy; deforestation and its effects
Urban runoff and urban drainage: reconfiguring the urban area, Blue Green Infrastructure
River engineering: river restoration; wetlands, reservoirs, NFM;
Flood defences. Dikes, embankments, flood walls, demountable systems.
Coastal and estuary engineering and managed realignment on the coast
Managing flood events: forecasting and warning; resilience at property and community level, insurance.
FEH – Statistical approach to Flood Hazard Estimation PRACTICAL – Regional Flood Estimation
Flood modelling – 1D, 2D, global flood modelling and Catastrophe modeling , urban and sewer flooding, PRACTICAL –CityCat
Rainfall forecasting: rainfall, radar, models
Predictive uncertainty and its use to improve decision making
PRACTICAL – Virtual flood – A simulated flood event and warning response exercise Coastal flooding: storm surge and tsunami
N.B. This module is also open to students attending the (funded) HydroEurope event run by UNSA (Nice). This is a 2-week event run at the same time as the Newcastle course (first week is the same time). The course aims and topics covered are very similar: demonstration and use of modelling methods for the estimation of extreme events and forecasting. The software used in Nice will be different, but both sets are equivalent industry standard software. The coursework task description is written to cover both eventualities.
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||24:00||24:00||Preparation and completion of report.|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||20||1:00||20:00||N/A|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Practical||4||3:00||12:00||Hydrograph generation and development of river model|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||1||44:00||44:00||Includes background reading and reading lecture notes for a full understanding of material|
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
To impart the basic theoretical and practical understanding represented by the knowledge outcomes via prepared material and self learning including discussions/tutorials with active student participation.
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
|Report||2||M||100||1 written exercise, max 15 pages in length including all documentation. Further spreadsheets including calculations may be required.|
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
In the assignment (written exercise) students will analyse and discuss a real practical case study of flood risk. They will carry out estimates of flood risk based on the 100 year event. They will propose a small number of FRM options and carry out simple benefit cost analysis for one of them