MAS1604 : Introduction to Probability
- Offered for Year: 2019/20
- Module Leader(s): Dr Tom Nye
- Owning School: Mathematics, Statistics and Physics
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
|Semester 2 Credit Value:||15|
To develop ideas and methods that are essential for the study of probability and statistics. To develop a familiarity with ideas of discrete and continuous probability models and their interpretation. To develop concepts in probability that underpin methods of statistical inference.
The course will cover the key concepts required for further study of probability and statistics. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, considering probability for discrete outcomes such as National Lottery draws or poker hands. We will then move on to probability distributions and investigate how they can be used to model uncertain quantities such as the response of patients to a new treatment in a clinical trial and the occurrence of earthquakes in tectonically active regions. The module will introduce ideas of bivariate distribution and covariation, which are fundamental to many of the most useful statistical techniques.
Outline Of Syllabus
Introduction to random variation and probability including the probability axioms.
Conditional probability and independence.
Discrete probability models: the binomial, geometric and Poisson distributions. Discrete bivariate models.
Continuous probability models: the uniform, exponential and Normal distributions.
QQ-plot for Normal case. Bivariate continuous distributions.
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||1||1:00||1:00||Assignment laboratory|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||1||1:00||1:00||Class test|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||3||1:00||3:00||Problem classes|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||3||1:00||3:00||Revision lectures|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||34||1:00||34:00||Formal lectures|
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||9:00||9:00||Revision for class test|
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||19:00||19:00||Revision for unseen exam|
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||2:30||2:30||Unseen exam|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Drop-in/surgery||4||1:00||4:00||Tutorials in the lecture room|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Drop-in/surgery||12||0:10||2:00||Office hours|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||1||32:30||32:30||Studying, practising and gaining understanding of course material|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||5||3:00||15:00||Review of coursework assignments and course test|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||4||6:00||24:00||Preparation for coursework assignments|
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
Lectures are used for the delivery of theory and explanation of methods, illustrated with examples, and for giving general feedback on marked work. Problem Classes are used to help develop the students’ abilities at applying the theory to solving problems. Tutorials are used to identify and resolve specific queries raised by students and to allow students to receive individual feedback on marked work. In addition, office hours (two per week) will provide an opportunity for more direct contact between individual students and the lecturer: a typical student might spend a total of one or two hours over the course of the module, either individually or as part of a group.
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
|Written Examination||40||2||M||10||Class test|
|Prob solv exercises||2||M||10||Coursework assignments|
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
A substantial formal unseen examination is appropriate for the assessment of the material in this module. The coursework assignments will consist of one written assignment (approximately 3%), one assignment laboratory (approximately 3%) and two computer based assessments (each approximately 2%). The coursework assignments and the (in class, therefore 40 minute) coursework test allow the students to develop their problem solving techniques, to practise the methods learnt in the module, to assess their progress and to receive feedback; these assessments have a secondary formative purpose as well as their primary summative purpose.