MAS2903 : Introduction to Bayesian methods
- Offered for Year: 2019/20
- Module Leader(s): Dr Lee Fawcett
- Owning School: Mathematics, Statistics and Physics
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
|Semester 2 Credit Value:||10|
Students will learn about the Bayesian approach to statistical analysis. Students will be able to explain the distinctive features of Bayesian methodology, understand the role of prior distributions and compute posterior distributions in simple cases.
The module will be devoted to an introduction to Bayesian methods, in which the prior and posterior distributions of a scalar parameter will be defined. The use of the likelihood to allow the prior distribution to be updated to the posterior distribution will be discussed. The use of Bayes theorem to compute posterior distributions from given priors and likelihoods will be described, with particular emphasis given to the case of conjugate distributions.
Outline Of Syllabus
Introduction to the Bayesian approach: subjective probability; likelihood; sufficiency. Inference for populations using random samples and conjugate priors, including posterior estimates and highest density intervals: inference for the mean of a normal distribution with known variance; inference for parameters in other commonly used distributions. Sequential use of Bayes' Theorem. Parameter constraints. Mixture prior distributions. Asymptotic posterior distribution.
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||25||1:00||25:00||Formal lectures|
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||6:00||6:00||Revision for class test|
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||13:00||13:00||Revision for unseen exam|
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||2:00||2:00||Unseen exam|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||1||1:00||1:00||Class test|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||3||1:00||3:00||Problem classes|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||2||1:00||2:00||Revision lectures|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Drop-in/surgery||12||0:10||2:00||Office hours|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Drop-in/surgery||4||1:00||4:00||Tutorials in the lecture room|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||1||21:00||21:00||Studying, practising and gaining understanding of course material|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||3||3:00||9:00||Review of coursework assignments and course test|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||2||6:00||12:00||Preparation for coursework assignments|
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
Lectures are used for the delivery of theory and explanation of methods, illustrated with examples, and for giving general feedback on marked work. Problem Classes are used to help develop the students’ abilities at applying the theory to solving problems. Tutorials are used to identify and resolve specific queries raised by students and to allow students to receive individual feedback on marked work. In addition, office hours (two per week) will provide an opportunity for more direct contact between individual students and the lecturer: a typical student might spend a total of one or two hours over the course of the module, either individually or as part of a group.
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
|Written Examination||40||2||M||10||Class test|
|Prob solv exercises||2||M||5||Coursework assignments|
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
A substantial formal unseen examination is appropriate for the assessment of the material in this module. The coursework assignments will consist of two written assignment of approximately equal weight. The coursework assignments and the (in class, therefore 40 minute) coursework test allow the students to develop their problem solving techniques, to practise the methods learnt in the module, to assess their progress and to receive feedback; these assessments have a secondary formative purpose as well as their primary summative purpose.