MAS3911 : Time Series
- Offered for Year: 2019/20
- Module Leader(s): Dr Peter Avery
- Owning School: Mathematics, Statistics and Physics
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
Semester 2 Credit Value:
• To gain an understanding of the principles of time series analysis.
• To develop skills for the modelling, analysis and forecasting of time series.
A time series is a set of ordered data with respect to time, such as the carbon dioxide concentration at a specific location measured at noon each day or the sales of a product recorded each month. Often in statistics, data are regarded as independent draws from a population. In time series analysis we typically do not regard consecutive observations to be independent, and build models to represent this dependence. Time series exhibit features such as trends and seasonal, or periodic, behaviour. In this module we consider modelling and inference for time series and forecasting future observations.
Outline Of Syllabus
Introduction to time series, including trend effects, seasonality and moving averages. Linear Gaussian processes, stationarity, autocovariance and autocorrelation. Autoregressive (AR), moving average (MA) and mixed (ARMA) models for stationary processes. Likelihood in a simple case such as AR(1). ARIMA processes, differencing, seasonal ARIMA as models for non-stationary processes. The role of sample autocorrelation, partial autocorrelation and correlograms in model choice. Tests of autocorrelation. Inference for model parameters. Forecasting. Dynamic linear models and the Kalman filter. Filtering and smoothing. Use of R for time series analysis.
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||13:00||13:00||Revision for unseen exam|
|Guided Independent Study||Assessment preparation and completion||1||2:00||2:00||Unseen exam|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||3||1:00||3:00||Problem classes|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||2||1:00||2:00||Revision lectures|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Lecture||25||1:00||25:00||Formal lectures|
|Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities||Drop-in/surgery||12||0:10||2:00||Office hours|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||2||3:00||6:00||Review of projects|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||1||19:00||19:00||Studying, practising and gaining understanding of course material|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||2||2:00||4:00||Review of problem-solving exercises|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||2||6:00||12:00||Preparation for projects|
|Guided Independent Study||Independent study||2||6:00||12:00||Preparation for problem-solving exercises|
Jointly Taught With
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
Lectures are used for the delivery of theory and explanation of methods, illustrated with examples, and for giving general feedback on marked work. Problem Classes are used to help develop the students’ abilities at applying the theory to solving problems. Tutorials are used to identify and resolve specific queries raised by students and to allow students to receive individual feedback on marked work. In addition, office hours (two per week) will provide an opportunity for more direct contact between individual students and the lecturer: a typical student might spend a total of one or two hours over the course of the module, either individually or as part of a group.
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
|Prob solv exercises||2||M||5||Problem solving exercises|
|Prob solv exercises||2||M||10||1 Group project|
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
A substantial formal unseen examination is appropriate for the assessment of the material in this module. The problem solving exercises are expected to consist of two assignments of equal weight: the exact nature of assessment will be explained at the start of the module. The individual and group projects will be of approximately equal weight. The exercises and the projects allow the students to develop their problem solving techniques, to practise the methods learnt in the module, to assess their progress and to receive feedback; these are thus formative as well as summative assessments.