CEG8419 : Transport Modelling and Forecasting
CEG8419 : Transport Modelling and Forecasting
- Offered for Year: 2024/25
- Module Leader(s): Professor Elisabetta Cherchi
- Owning School: Engineering
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
Semesters
Your programme is made up of credits, the total differs on programme to programme.
Semester 1 Credit Value: | 10 |
ECTS Credits: | 5.0 |
European Credit Transfer System | |
Pre-requisite
Modules you must have done previously to study this module
Code | Title |
---|---|
CEG8423 | Transport Research Methods |
Pre Requisite Comment
Student NOT on the Transport Stream should have previously completed a Research Method Module.
The course only requirement is some basic knowledge of descriptive statistics and basic knowledge of what is a mathematical model (i.e. a linear regression) and how to use it in practice.
Co-Requisite
Modules you need to take at the same time
Co Requisite Comment
N/A
Aims
The aim of the course is to make the student capable of understanding, modelling and forecasting transport systems.
This module intends to cover
• the techniques used by transport planners for modelling transport systems across the scales and the theory underlying them and the relevant themes in the context of the Four-step Planning Model
• project appraisal and impact assessment
• the application of theory related to transport modelling as well as hands on experience of software packages that play a major role when it comes to decision-making in transport planning, policy evaluation, project appraisal.
Outline Of Syllabus
The themes of lectures delivered are (it does not correspond to the exact lecture schedule):
-Fundamentals of the transport problems and its interaction with the economic, urban, social, environmental systems.
-Transport modelling and forecasting process
-the Four-step transport model:
• Generation/attraction
• Trip distribution
• Mode choice
• Traffic assignment
-Brief discussion on other dimensions and recent methods to model transport
• departure time, residential location, car ownership
• activity-based model
• agent-based models and machine learning
Practical application with software used in industry (VISUM)
Transport appraisal
Learning Outcomes
Intended Knowledge Outcomes
At the end of the module a student will be able to:
-Understand the fundamental determinants of the transport problem and its internal (demand/supply) and external (economic, social etc.) interactions
-Select and use the appropriate transport model to study and assess the impact of transport policies, as well as economic, environmental, social, urban policies.
-Interpret and compare the modelling results arguing on the impact of various policies on different components of the transport systems.
-Use well established software packages (VISUM) which are commonly used to support decisions in transport sector the software
-Work independently as well as in a team
-Understand transport appraisal (methods/theory, and practical applications)
Intended Skill Outcomes
At the end of the module a student will be able to:
Develop advanced methodological skills related to transport demand modelling and forecasting.
Develop analytical skills.
• Gain hands on experience of using the software packages used in Industry
-Using transport models in practical applications
-Arguing on the pros and cons of different methods and models to study transport problems.
-Critically analyzing the impact of transport, economic, urban, social, environmental policies.
-Write a methodologically sound report containing a description of the phenomenon, treatment of data, a theoretical description of the model specifications, a critical evaluation of the impact of policies, a basic appraisal of the project.
Teaching Methods
Teaching Activities
Category | Activity | Number | Length | Student Hours | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 1 | 2:00 | 2:00 | examination |
Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 20 | 0:30 | 10:00 | Revision for examination |
Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 10 | 2:00 | 20:00 | Lectures |
Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Practical | 9 | 2:00 | 18:00 | Computer practical’s included demo’s &sessions for completion of assessed work whilst under guidance |
Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 1 | 35:00 | 35:00 | Includes background reading and reading of lecture notes for a full understanding of the material. |
Guided Independent Study | Independent study | 1 | 15:00 | 15:00 | Group report of 3/4 students covering implementation and evaluation of policies using a real case study. Report will be evaluated. |
Total | 100:00 |
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
Teaching and learning of this module is done by a combination of lectures, computer demonstrations and practical work, guest lectures, coursework and reading materials. This is in line with the learning outcomes. Lectures, guest lectures and coursework are intended to provide the theoretical background, computer demonstrations allow students to learn the software and the codes to build the mathematical model. Practical work allows students to learn how to link the theory with the practice (how to use the theory in practice) and help developing problem solving skills.
Reading materials helps developing critical, independent and innovative thinking.
Reading Lists
Assessment Methods
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
Exams
Description | Length | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Written Examination | 120 | 1 | A | 65 | Unseen written examination |
Other Assessment
Description | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
---|---|---|---|---|
Report | 1 | M | 35 | Report prepared in groups of 3/4 students where models estimated using a real data set are presented and discussed. |
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
The two forms of assessment (written exam and report) are intended to serve two purposes:
(1) testing if students acquired the intended skills in terms of understanding and master the theoretical background (written exam) and being able to apply the theory in practice (report);
(2) allowing students, who have different background, to find in one of the three form of examination the form they are more familiar with and where they can express themselves in the best way.
Timetable
- Timetable Website: www.ncl.ac.uk/timetable/
- CEG8419's Timetable
Past Exam Papers
- Exam Papers Online : www.ncl.ac.uk/exam.papers/
- CEG8419's past Exam Papers
General Notes
N/A
Welcome to Newcastle University Module Catalogue
This is where you will be able to find all key information about modules on your programme of study. It will help you make an informed decision on the options available to you within your programme.
You may have some queries about the modules available to you. Your school office will be able to signpost you to someone who will support you with any queries.
Disclaimer
The information contained within the Module Catalogue relates to the 2024 academic year.
In accordance with University Terms and Conditions, the University makes all reasonable efforts to deliver the modules as described.
Modules may be amended on an annual basis to take account of changing staff expertise, developments in the discipline, the requirements of external bodies and partners, and student feedback. Module information for the 2025/26 entry will be published here in early-April 2025. Queries about information in the Module Catalogue should in the first instance be addressed to your School Office.