Newcastle University

Pre Requisite Comment

None

Co Requisite Comment

None

Aims

The aim of the module is to introduce and describe the Earth's climate system with respect to past, present and future change. To describe climate modelling techniques and scenario outputs, with emphasis on threats to infrastructure and society, scenarios for engineering applications, and associated uncertainties.

This module covers the fundamentals of climate science, the earth system and the causes and evidence of climate change. This knowledge will explain how the earth system (natural and human) is affected by climate change. Past and present observed changes will be considered, and the student will learn how climate models work and the nature (and limits of our knowledge) of the future climate. The student will then be well equipped to apply this and subsequent knowledge of their work. Crucially, they will have the ability to rebuff common myths and resolve confusion put forward by climate change deniers and the genuinely uninformed, so as to confidently pursue the sustainable engineering agenda.

Outline Of Syllabus

1. An overview of climate change History, context: science vs engineering, evidence vs belief, vested interests and political aspects, aims of the modules and roadmap      
2. The earth system: the general circulation, atmosphere-ocean, cryosphere, greenhouse effect
3. The grand cycles: Hydrological cycle, carbon cycle, biogeochemical cycles and linkages, CO2
4. Climate variability: Causes and signals, Milankovitch, ice ages, solar, volcanic, ENSO, NAO, Sahel drought etc.
5. Past climate: palaeoclimates, proxies, non-instrumental records, climate reconstruction, implications for future
6. Anthropogenic forcing: enhanced greenhouse effect, sources and budgets of greenhouse gases, emissions scenarios, large scale land use changes, urbanisation, urban heat-islands
7. Observed changes: Surface and atmospheric – temperature, rainfall, humidity, heatwaves      

Tutorial 1 session on climate myths covering paleo and current changes

8. Observed changes: Rivers, flood, drought, groundwater, snow, ice      
9. Observed changes: Sea Level and storms, hurricanes      

Practical 1 : session on change assessment for key locations

10. Detection of anthropogenic changes: statistics of trend detection , attribution

Practical 2: session on trend detection and attribution

11. Climate modelling (1) – GCMs – history of development, IPCC DDC, how they work and limitations
12. Climate modelling (2) – Evaluation of models, CMIP4, uncertainty, ensembles (MME, PPE); UKCIP08, CP.net,
13. Climate modelling (3) - downscaling, RCMs, statistical approaches;
14. Climate modelling (4) - weather generators, extremes

Practical : session on generating engineering scenarios

15. Future climate projections (1) global and regional overview of main features
16. Future climate projections (2) review of threats: heat, water, sea level rise, ecosystems and food, society, health

Intended Knowledge Outcomes

At the end of this module, students should have an understanding of:-

1. Fundamentals of the earth system and its climate : the grand cycles and feedbacks.
2. Past and present evidence and nature of change and human impacts.
3. Principles and limits of climate modelling and specific engineering scenario techniques.
4. Broad knowledge of future changes and threats (Links into next module).

Intended Skill Outcomes

At the end of this module, students should have achieved the following skills:-

5. The ability and confidence to pursue and promote climate change awareness agenda in professional setting.
6. The ability to select and apply suitable methods to develop future climate scenarios for engineering applications.
7. Confidence and understanding to use, and promote use of, climate scenario information

Teaching Rationale And Relationship

Lecture series and directed reading provides background and detailed information for outcomes 1-4.
Outcomes 3, 5-7 are primarily achieved through practical sessions assessing observed data and using climate model data and software to generate future scenarios. A tutorial session on “climate myths” together with supporting material particularly addresses outcome 7.

Assessment Rationale And Relationship

The exam addresses intended knowledge outcomes of:-

* Fundamentals of the earth system and its climate : the grand cycles and feedbacks;
* Past and present evidence and nature of change and human impacts;
* Principles and limits of climate modelling and specific engineering scenario techniques;
* Broad knowledge of future changes and threats;
* The ability to select and apply suitable methods to develop future climate scenarios for engineering
applications

The essay asks for an assessment of changing weather hazards in a specific location using state-of-the-art scenario generation methods. Addresses intended skill outcomes as follows:

* Past and present evidence and nature of change and human impacts;
* Principles and limits of climate modelling and specific engineering scenario techniques;
* The ability and confidence to pursue and promote climate change awareness agenda in professional setting;
* The ability to select and apply suitable methods to develop future climate scenarios for engineering applications;
* Confidence and understanding to use, and promote use of, climate scenario information.

General Notes

N/A