Insight: Historic trade policy reversal shakes global economy
Dr Brian Varian of Newcastle University Business School shares his expert opinion on recent tariff changes and relates this to historic economic policies.
6 June 2025
Recent shifts in global trade policy have prompted serious discussions among economists and policymakers worldwide. Dr Brian Varian, Senior Lecturer in Economics at Newcastle University Business School and an expert economic historian specialising in tariffs, shared his insights during an interview on LBC Radio with host Matt Frei on Saturday 5 April.
In the short interview, Dr Varian provided a historically informed assessment of the tariffs imposed during the Trump administration, emphasising their unprecedented nature. "You’d have to go back about 100 years to find such a reversal in trade policy," Varian remarked, underscoring the profound nature of these protectionist measures and their potential for creating international economic instability.
The interview, a deep dive into the historical context of tariffs, provides rich insights. Dr Varian, who has recently contributed to public discourse through articles in the Economics Observatory and The Round Table: The Commonwealth Journal of International Affairs and Policy Studies, continues to engage with the public and academic audiences alike on this critical topic.
His recent work explores the long-term effects of protectionism, including the British experience of export-retarded growth in the late 19th century and the formation of the British imperial trade bloc in the early 20th century. With respect to Britain, Dr Varian stated:
“Tariffs have rarely been beneficial to the British economy. Before the First World War, when Britain maintained a free-trade policy, its economy still suffered from rising foreign protectionism due its effect on investment and productivity growth in Britain’s export sector. Beginning in the 1930s, Britain’s shift toward protectionism—a protectionism that persisted well into the post-war era—dampened productivity growth by way of reducing competition.”
As the economy grapples with the fallout from contemporary trade tensions, Dr Varian’s historical perspective offers valuable lessons for policymakers seeking to navigate the future of international trade relations.