Decomposing Unrealized Returns into Adapted and Unadapted Components Using Reference Points
About this event
Our research seminars provide a forum for academics to present and discuss their latest work. Academics come from both within the Business School and from external institutions. They share insights from their research or a paper in progress. This is followed by discussion and questions from the audience. The series is open to staff and students from across the University.
Host
Speaker
Dr Darren Duxbury, Chair in Finance at Newcastle University Business School
Abstract
Previous research shows that realized and unrealized outcomes influence subsequent risk-taking behavior, albeit in opposite ways. We further decompose unrealized outcomes into adapted and unadapted components, which have distinct implications for risk-taking. Adapted returns are internalized as individuals adjust their reference point, while unadapted returns remain externalized. Our empirical evidence shows that adapted and unadapted returns exert opposing influences on future stock returns. Notably, the highest-performing stocks have a distant past return that is low (reflecting an adapted loss) paired with a recent past return that is high (reflecting an unadapted gain).