The research shows that for every degree of global or regional warming, winter rainfall increases by a compounding 7%, increasing the risk of flooding. And the scientists warn, it is happening much faster than most global climate models predict.

They looked at UK winter rainfall from 1901 to 2023 to investigate if the observed changes in winter rainfall in the UK are due to shifts in weather patterns (dynamical), or due to a warmer atmosphere being able to hold more moisture and produce more intense and larger rainstorms (non-dynamical or thermodynamic component).

Published in the journal Geophysical research Letters, the results show that the observed increase in winter rainfall in the UK is driven by rising temperatures from anthropogenic warming, rather than by changes in weather patterns. The volume of rainfall across the UK each winter is increasing by about 7% per degree of warming, which is consistent with the expected rate of moisture increase in a warmer atmosphere.

The experts also discovered that most state-of-the-art global climate models substantially underestimate how strongly winter seasonal rainfall is increasing with temperature. On average, the models predict only a 4% increase per degree of warming, much lower than the 7% increase per degree of warming found in historical observations.

20 years ahead of global climate models predictions

Study lead author, Dr James Carruthers, Newcastle University School of Engineering, said: "The findings from our research show that climate change has already made our winters significantly wetter, with a 7% increase in rainfall per degree of global warming. This is really concerning, as seasonal rainfall is increasing at a much faster rate than global climate models have predicted. We’re already experiencing changes in UK winter rainfall that global climate models predict for the 2040s – we’re 20 years ahead."

“The UK Met Office data show that since the 1980s the UK climate has been warming at a rate of approximately 0.25°C per decade - so we’re seeing almost 9% more rainfall that we did in the 80s. October 2023 to March 2024 was the wettest winter half-year on record, although this year is giving it a run for its money!”

Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts at Newcastle University, and one of the study authors, said: “As I said in November at the National Emergency Briefing on the Climate and Nature Crises, the extra water that falls every winter across the UK from fossil-fuel induced warming would fill 3 million Olympic sized swimming pools. This predisposes the country to flooding as the ground is more generally saturated. This extra rainfall will continue to increase every year with additional global warming. We can only stop these increases in flooding by stopping the burning of fossil fuels.

“Our results show that the current severe flooding situation, with more than 100 flood warnings across the UK, will become more likely in the future. There is a widening gap between growing climate risks and action on adaptation. It is vitally important that we overhaul our planning and adaptation strategies, with increased investment being directed towards addressing this growing challenge. Without increased resources there is going to be increasing economic damages, and more casualties from these severe floods.”

The study builds on previous research by the team which found that Northern and central Europe are becoming significantly wetter, increasing winter flood risk. In contrast, the experts found that winters in the Mediterranean are becoming much drier, deepening drought and water scarcity. Their analysis reveals that global climate models significantly underestimate both the speed and magnitude of these changes to winter rainfall.

Reference:

Carruthers, J. G., Fowler, H. J., Bannister, D., & Guerreiro, S. B. (2026). Climate models tend to underestimate scaling of UK mean winter precipitation with temperature. Geophysical Research Letters, 53, e2025GL118201. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL118201