Staff Profile

Areas of expertise: impact of climate change on water resources, droughts, heat waves and extreme rainfall.

Qualifications

PhD in "Climate change impacts on water resources and drought in Iberia" - Newcastle University (2014)

MEng in Environmental Engineering - New University of Lisbon (2005)

Awards

Best oral presentation award at the BHS Peter Wolf Early Career Hydrologists’ Event (2012)

Public engagement

I participated in the event Science Uncovered at the Hancock Museum (2016) with an interactive display concerning floods, heatwaves and droughts in European cities.

Invited speaker for a climate change seminar at SWECO UK (2015)

Public talk at the ¡VAMOS! Festival (2014) about the future of water resources in international rivers in Portugal and Spain.

Industrial experience

From 2007 to 2015 - Water resources consultancy related to rivers in the centre and north of Portugal for RP Global, an international renewable energy company.

From 2006 to 2009 - Environmental engineer, and later on, project manager at Bruno & Lopes a Portuguese environmental monitoring company whose core business is hydrological monitoring.

Memberships

Royal Meteorological Society

British Hydrological Society

Portuguese Engineering Society

Google Scholar: Click here.

SCOPUS: Click here.

Research interests

• Impacts of climate change
• Water resources 
• Droughts
• Heat-waves
• Intense rainfall

I am currently a NUAcT research fellow looking at “Compound Drought and Heat-Waves – from Global Understanding to Local Scenarios”. The aim of my fellowship is to develop a global understanding of past and future local droughts, heat-waves and their compound (concurrent) events, to enable robust societal adaptation.

I worked on the INTENSE project (https://research.ncl.ac.uk/intense/aboutintense/) which explored how rainfall extremes will respond to a warmer world. For this project, I assessed changes in the magnitude and frequency of observed extreme hourly and daily rainfall in Australia. My work shows that extreme daily rainfall is increasing with temperature at rates that would be expected from thermodynamics (Clausius-Clapeyron). However, hourly extremes are increasing two to three times higher than expected, and are outside the range of natural variability.

Previously, I worked on the European research project RAMSES (http://www.ramses-cities.eu/). My contribution to the project was the development of a high-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on flooding, droughts and heat-waves in all European cities. This hazard assessment was combined with a vulnerability and exposure assessment in order to have an indication of the risk that climate change poses to European cities. 

For my PhD I assessed the “Future climate impacts on drought and water resources in international Iberian basins”. This encompassed: statistical analysis of observed historical rainfall for Iberia (Portugal and Spain); evaluation of future climate projections from CMIP5 climate models for Iberia and running the hydrological model SHETRAN to assess changes in flows.

 Media attention

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/21/climate-change-will-push-european-cities-towards-breaking-point

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5414223/Europes-cities-face-extreme-weather-thought.html

https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-could-cause-more-severe-droughts-98-per-cent-european-cities?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A carbonbrief %28The Carbon Brief%29

https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/british-cities-among-threatened-europe-flooding-caused-climate-change-study/

https://news.sky.com/story/british-isles-worst-for-flooding-as-europe-hits-breaking-point-11259069

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/europeans-should-gird-for-extreme-weather/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/which-irish-cities-will-be-hardest-hit-by-flooding-in-the-future-1.3402451

http://www.corriere.it/cronache/18_febbraio_21/ondate-calore-estreme-siccita-cosi-30-anni-cambieranno-citta-italiane-b191577a-16ea-11e8-b630-41a05c9e9642.shtml#commentFormAnchor?refresh_ce-cp

http://www.lescienze.it/news/2018/02/22/news/europa_cambiamento_climatico-3873161/?rss

http://visao.sapo.pt/actualidade/sociedade/2018-02-27-Se-nao-fizermos-nada-ha-cidades-na-Europa-que-vao-ficar-submersas-e-outras-que-podem-ficar-sem-agua

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/spain-portugal-megadroughts-eight-fifteen-years-2100-study-drought-newcastle-university-a7757036.html

http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/pais/2017-05-26-Portugal-pode-ser-atingido-por-longos-periodos-de-seca

http://www.dn.pt/lusa/interior/portugal-pode-ser-atingido-por-periodos-de-seca-de-dez-ou-mais-anos-ate-2100---estudo-8510645.html

Interviewed for the BBC television documentary “Weather World” about future heatwaves in Europe (2015);

Interviewed for the RTP (Portugal) evening news regarding the future river flow in Portuguese rivers (2017)

I supervise MSc and PhD students

• Articles

  • Guerreiro SB, Blenkinsop S, Lewis E, Pritchard D, Green A, Fowler HJ. Unravelling the complex interplay between daily and sub-daily rainfall extremes in different climates. Weather and Climate Extremes 2024, 46, 100735.
  • Villalobos Herrera R, Blenkinsop S, Guerreiro SB, Dale M, Faulkner D, Fowler HJ. Towards new design rainfall profiles for the United Kingdom. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2024, 176(1), e12958.
  • Villalobos-Herrera R, Blenkinsop S, Guerreiro SB, O'Hara T, Fowler HJ. Sub-hourly resolution quality control of rain-gauge data significantly improves regional sub-daily return level estimates. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 2022, 148(748), 3252-3271.
  • Fowler HJ, Ali H, Allan RP, Ban N, Barbero R, Berg P, Blenkinsop S, Cabi NS, Chan S, Dale M, Dunn RJH, Ekstrom M, Evans JP, Fosser G, Golding B, Guerreiro SB, Hegerl GC, Kahraman A, Kendon EJ, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X, O'Gorman PA, Orr HG, Peat KL, Prein AF, Pritchard D, Schar C, Sharma A, Stott PA, Villalobos-Herrera R, Villarini G, Wasko C, Wehner MF, Westra S, Whitford A. Towards advancing scientific knowledge of climate change impacts on short-duration rainfall extremes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 2021, 379(2195), 20190542.
  • Lewis E, Pritchard D, Villalobos-Herrera R, Blenkinsop S, McClean F, Guerreiro S, Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Rustemeier E, Fowler H. Quality control of a global hourly rainfall dataset. Environmental Modelling & Software 2021, 144, 105169.
  • Kong Q, Guerreiro SB, Blenkinsop S, Li X-F, Fowler HJ. Increases in summertime concurrent drought and heatwave in Eastern China. Weather and Climate Extremes 2020, 28, 100242.
  • Li X-F, Blenkinsop S, Barbero R, Yu J, Lewis E, Lenderink G, Guerreiro S, Chan S, Li Y, Ali H, Villalobos Herrera R, Kendon E, Fowler HJ. Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO. Climate Dynamics 2020, 54, 4823-4839.
  • Lewis E, Fowler H, Alexander L, Dunn R, McClean F, Barbero R, Guerreiro S, Li XF, Blenkinsop S. GSDR: A Global Sub-Daily Rainfall Dataset. Journal of Climate 2019, 32(15), 4715-4729.
  • Barbero R, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Westra S, Moron V, Lewis E, Chan S, Lenderink G, Kendon E, Guerreiro S, Li XF, Villalobos R, Ali H. A synthesis of hourly and daily precipitation extremes in different climatic regions. Weather and Climate Extremes 2019, 26, 100219.
  • Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, Chan SC, Guerreiro SB, Kendon E, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X-F, Westra S, Alexander L, Allan RP, Berg P, Dunn RJH, Ekström M, Evans J, Holland G, Jones R, Kjellström E, Klein-Tank A, Lettenmaier D, Mishra V, Prein AF, Sheffield J, Tye MR. The INTENSE project: using observations and models to understand the past, present and future of sub-daily rainfall extremes. Advances in Science & Research 2018, 15, 117–126.
  • Guerreiro SB, Dawson RJ, Kilsby C, Lewis E, Ford A. Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities. Environmental Research Letters 2018, 13(3), 034009.
  • Guerreiro SB, Glenis V, Dawson RJ, Kilsby C. Pluvial flooding in European cities - A continental approach to urban flood modelling. Water 2017, 9(4), 296.
  • Guerreiro SB, Birkinshaw S, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ, Lewis E. Dry getting drier − the future of transnational river basins in Iberia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 2017, 12, 238-252.
  • Birkinshaw SJ, Guerreiro SB, Nicholson A, Liang Q, Quinn P, Zhang L, He B, Yin J, Fowler HJ. Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2017, 21(4), 1911-1927.
  • Guerreiro SB, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ. Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia. International Journal of Climatology 2017, 37(15), 5024-5034.
  • Guerreiro SB, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ. Rainfall in Iberian transnational basins: a drier future for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana?. Climatic Change 2016, 135(3), 467-480.
  • Guerreiro SB, Kilsby CG, Serinaldi F. Analysis of time variation of rainfall in transnational basins in Iberia: abrupt changes or trends?. International Journal of Climatology 2014, 34(1), 114-133.

• Letter

  • Guerreiro SB, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, Westra S, Lenderink G, Blenkinsop S, Lewis E, Li X-F. Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes. Nature Climate Change 2018, 8, 803-807.