Background

Areas of expertise: impact of climate change on water resources, droughts, heat waves and extreme rainfall.

Qualifications

PhD in "Climate change impacts on water resources and drought in Iberia" - Newcastle University (2014)

MEng in Environmental Engineering - New University of Lisbon (2005)

Awards

Best oral presentation award at the BHS Peter Wolf Early Career Hydrologists’ Event (2012)

Public engagement

I participated in the event Science Uncovered at the Hancock Museum (2016) with an interactive display concerning floods, heatwaves and droughts in European cities.

Invited speaker for a climate change seminar at SWECO UK (2015)

Public talk at the ¡VAMOS! Festival (2014) about the future of water resources in international rivers in Portugal and Spain.

Industrial experience

From 2007 to 2015 - Water resources consultancy related to rivers in the centre and north of Portugal for RP Global, an international renewable energy company.

From 2006 to 2009 - Environmental engineer, and later on, project manager at Bruno & Lopes a Portuguese environmental monitoring company whose core business is hydrological monitoring.

Memberships

Royal Meteorological Society

British Hydrological Society

Portuguese Engineering Society

Google Scholar: Click here.

SCOPUS: Click here.

Research

Research interests

• Impacts of climate change
• Water resources 
• Droughts
• Heat-waves
• Intense rainfall

I am working on the INTENSE project (https://research.ncl.ac.uk/intense/aboutintense/) which is exploring how rainfall extremes will respond to a warmer world, the effect of natural variability, and the implications for adaptation strategies. A global sub-daily observed precipitation dataset is being collated and the goal is to develop innovative downscaling approaches using information from high- and coarse-resolution climate models and process understanding from observations. 

Previously, I worked on the European research project RAMSES (http://www.ramses-cities.eu/). My contribution to the project was the development of a high-level analysis of the impacts of climate change on flooding, droughts and heat-waves in all European cities. This hazard assessment was combined with a vulnerability and exposure assessment in order to have an indication of the risk that climate change poses to European cities. 

For my PhD I assessed the “Future climate impacts on drought and water resources in international Iberian basins”. This encompassed: statistical analysis of observed historical rainfall for Iberia (Portugal and Spain); evaluation of future climate projections from CMIP5 climate models for Iberia and running the hydrological model SHETRAN to assess changes in flows.

 

Media attention

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/feb/21/climate-change-will-push-european-cities-towards-breaking-point

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-5414223/Europes-cities-face-extreme-weather-thought.html

https://www.carbonbrief.org/climate-change-could-cause-more-severe-droughts-98-per-cent-european-cities?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A carbonbrief %28The Carbon Brief%29

https://inews.co.uk/news/uk/british-cities-among-threatened-europe-flooding-caused-climate-change-study/

https://news.sky.com/story/british-isles-worst-for-flooding-as-europe-hits-breaking-point-11259069

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/europeans-should-gird-for-extreme-weather/

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/which-irish-cities-will-be-hardest-hit-by-flooding-in-the-future-1.3402451

http://www.corriere.it/cronache/18_febbraio_21/ondate-calore-estreme-siccita-cosi-30-anni-cambieranno-citta-italiane-b191577a-16ea-11e8-b630-41a05c9e9642.shtml#commentFormAnchor?refresh_ce-cp

http://www.lescienze.it/news/2018/02/22/news/europa_cambiamento_climatico-3873161/?rss

http://visao.sapo.pt/actualidade/sociedade/2018-02-27-Se-nao-fizermos-nada-ha-cidades-na-Europa-que-vao-ficar-submersas-e-outras-que-podem-ficar-sem-agua

http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/spain-portugal-megadroughts-eight-fifteen-years-2100-study-drought-newcastle-university-a7757036.html

http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/pais/2017-05-26-Portugal-pode-ser-atingido-por-longos-periodos-de-seca

http://www.dn.pt/lusa/interior/portugal-pode-ser-atingido-por-periodos-de-seca-de-dez-ou-mais-anos-ate-2100---estudo-8510645.html

Interviewed for the BBC television documentary “Weather World” about future heatwaves in Europe (2015);

Interviewed for the RTP (Portugal) evening news regarding the future river flow in Portuguese rivers (2017)

Teaching

I supervise MSc and PhD students and contribute to the MSc module CEG8514 - Climate Change: Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation 

Publications

• Kong Q, Guerreiro SB, Blenkinsop S, Li X-F, Fowler HJ. Increases in summertime concurrent drought and heatwave in Eastern China. Weather and Climate Extremes 2020, 28, 100242.
• Barbero R, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Westra S, Moron V, Lewis E, Chan S, Lenderink G, Kendon E, Guerreiro S, Li XF, Villalobos R, Ali H. A synthesis of hourly and daily precipitation extremes in different climatic regions. Weather and Climate Extremes 2019, 26, 100219.
• Lewis E, Fowler H, Alexander L, Dunn R, McClean F, Barbero R, Guerreiro S, Li XF, Blenkinsop S. GSDR: A Global Sub-Daily Rainfall Dataset. Journal of Climate 2019, 32(15), 4715-4729.
• Guerreiro SB, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, Westra S, Lenderink G, Blenkinsop S, Lewis E, Li X-F. Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes. Nature Climate Change 2018, 8, 803-807.
• Guerreiro SB, Dawson RJ, Kilsby C, Lewis E, Ford A. Future heat-waves, droughts and floods in 571 European cities. Environmental Research Letters 2018, 13(3), 034009.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, Chan SC, Guerreiro SB, Kendon E, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X-F, Westra S, Alexander L, Allan RP, Berg P, Dunn RJH, Ekström M, Evans J, Holland G, Jones R, Kjellström E, Klein-Tank A, Lettenmaier D, Mishra V, Prein AF, Sheffield J, Tye MR. The INTENSE project: using observations and models to understand the past, present and future of sub-daily rainfall extremes. Advances in Science & Research 2018, 15, 117–126.
• Guerreiro SB, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ. Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia. International Journal of Climatology 2017, 37(15), 5024-5034.
• Birkinshaw SJ, Guerreiro SB, Nicholson A, Liang Q, Quinn P, Zhang L, He B, Yin J, Fowler HJ. Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2017, 21(4), 1911-1927.
• Guerreiro SB, Birkinshaw S, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ, Lewis E. Dry getting drier − the future of transnational river basins in Iberia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 2017, 12, 238-252.
• Guerreiro SB, Glenis V, Dawson RJ, Kilsby C. Pluvial flooding in European cities - A continental approach to urban flood modelling. Water 2017, 9(4), 296.
• Guerreiro SB, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ. Rainfall in Iberian transnational basins: a drier future for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana?. Climatic Change 2016, 135(3), 467-480.
• Guerreiro SB, Kilsby CG, Serinaldi F. Analysis of time variation of rainfall in transnational basins in Iberia: abrupt changes or trends?. International Journal of Climatology 2014, 34(1), 114-133.