Background

Dr Stephen Blenkinsop is a Senior Researcher in Climate and Climate Change for the School of Engineering at Newcastle University. His areas of expertise are climatic variability and change, climate change impacts, quality control of climate observations, climate downscaling and climate extremes.

Qualifications

PhD, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia
MSc, Geographical Information Systems, University of Leicester
BSc, Geography, University of Durham, Class I

Memberships

Royal Meteorological Society
British Hydrological Society

External Profiles

Google Scholar

ResearchGate

Research

Research Interests

The impacts of climatic variability and change on hydrological systems, observational temperature and precipitation series and downscaling, in particular in relation to extreme events, floods and droughts.

Current Work

I am currently working on the EU-funded INTENSE project examining characteristics of sub-daily rainfall and its drivers.  I have produced a quality-controlled hourly rainfall dataset for the UK and am currently working on a corresponding sub-hourly dataset.  I have also recently worked on projects examining Himalayan climate variability.  I have also worked on the NERC-funded CONVEX and SINATRA projects, undertaking analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall through the examination of hourly gauge data.  I also worked on the EPSRC-funded SWERVE (Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator) project.  This assessed the impacts of extreme weather on the SE London area, deriving probabilistic projections for a range of weather-related hazards such as flooding, heatwaves, wind and subsidence.  This was achieved by using and developing datasets, tools and methodologies which form part of the UKCP09 output.

I have co-authored ~40 peer-reviewed journal articles.

Esteem Indicators

Associate Editor Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica

Teaching

Postgraduate Teaching

CEG8505 Climate Change, Earth Systems, Future Scenarios and Threats

Undergraduate Teaching

CEG2001 Design of Sustainable Engineering Systems 2

Publications

• Lewis E, Quinn N, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Freer J, Tanguy M, Hitt O, Coxon G, Bates P, Woods R. A rule based quality control method for hourly rainfall data and a 1 km resolution gridded hourly rainfall dataset for Great Britain: CEH-GEAR1hr. Journal of Hydrology 2018, 564, 930-943.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Roberts N, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Large-scale predictors for extreme hourly precipitation events in convection-permitting climate simulations. Journal of Climate 2018, 31(6), 2115-2131.
• Forestieri A, Lo Conti F, Blenkinsop S, Cannarozzo M, Fowler HJ, Noto LV. Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in Sicily (Italy). International Journal of Climatology 2018, 38(51), e698-e716.
• Forestieri A, Arnone E, Blenkinsop S, Candela A, Fowler H, Noto LV. The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy. Hydrological Processes 2018, 32(3), 332-348.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, Chan SC, Guerreiro SB, Kendon E, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X-F, Westra S, Alexander L, Allan RP, Berg P, Dunn RJH, Ekström M, Evans J, Holland G, Jones R, Kjellström E, Klein-Tank A, Lettenmaier D, Mishra V, Prein AF, Sheffield J, Tye MR. The INTENSE project: using observations and models to understand the past, present and future of sub-daily rainfall extremes. Advances in Science & Research 2018, 15, 117–126.
• Li X-F, Fowler HJ, Forsythe N, Blenkinsop S, Pritchard D. The Karakoram/Western Tibetan Vortex: seasonal and year-to-year variability. Climate Dynamics 2018, 51(9-10), 3883–3906.
• Kendon EJ, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. When will we detect changes in short-duration precipitation extremes?. Journal of Climate 2018, 31(7), 2945-2964.
• Barbero R, Fowler HJ, Lenderink G, Blenkinsop S. Is the intensification of precipitation extremes with global warming better detected at hourly than daily resolutions?. Geophysical Research Letters 2017, 44(2), 974-983.
• Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Li XF, Blenkinsop S, Pritchard D. Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability. Nature Climate Change 2017, 7, 664-670.
• Blenkinsop S, Lewis E, Chan SC, Fowler HJ. Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK. International Journal of Climatology 2017, 37(2), 722-740.
• Walsh CL, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Burton A, Dawson RJ, Glenis V, Manning LJ, Jahanshahi G, Kilsby CG. Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2016, 20, 1869-1884.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S. Downturn in scaling of UK extreme rainfall with temperature for future hottest days. Nature Geosciences 2016, 9(1), 24-28.
• Blenkinsop S, Lewis E, Chan SC, Fowler HJ. Quality control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK. International Journal of Climatology 2016. In Preparation.
• Tye MR, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Stephenson DB, Kilsby CG. Simulating multimodal seasonality in extreme daily precipitation occurrence. Journal of Hydrology 2016, 537, 117-129.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S. The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a high-resolution convective permitting model. Environmental Research Letters 2016, 11(9).
• Forsythe N, Hardy AJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby CG, Archer DR, Hashmi MZ. A detailed cloud fraction climatology of the Upper Indus Basin and its implications for near surface air temperature. Journal of Climate 2015, 28(9), 3537-3556.
• Forsythe N, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources. Earth System Dynamics 2015, 6(1), 311-326.
• Dale M, Luck B, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Gill E, Bennett J, Kendon EJ, Chan SC. New climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering Sustainability 2017, 170(4), 214-224.
• Blenkinsop S, Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ. Temperature influences on intense UK hourly precipitation and dependency on large-scale circulation. Environmental Research Letters 2015, 10(5), 054021.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. An Hourly and Multi-Hourly Extreme Precipitation Climatology for the UK and Long-Term Changes in Extremes. In: Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA). 2014, Liverpool, UK: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
• Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Kilsby CG, Archer DR, Harpham C, Hashmi MZ. Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Hydrology 2014, 517, 1019-1034.
• Jones M, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Objective classification of extreme rainfall regions for the UK and updated estimates of trends in regional extreme rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 2014, 34(3), 751-765.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM. Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models. Environmental Research Letters 2014, 9(8), 084019.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM, Ferro CAT. The value of high-resolution Met Office regional climate models in the simulation of multi-hourly precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate 2014, 27(16), 6155-6174.
• Jones MR, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Blenkinsop S. An assessment of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall in the UK between 1961 and 2009. International Journal of Climatology 2013, 33(5), 1178-1194.
• Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?. Climate Dynamics 2013, 41(5-6), 1475-1495.
• Blenkinsop S, Harpham C, Burton A, Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Fowler HJ. Downscaling transient climate change with a stochastic weather generator for the Geer catchment, Belgium. Climate Research 2013, 57(2), 95-109.
• van Vliet M, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Harpham C, Broers H, Fowler HJ. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe. Climatic Change 2012, 111(2), 249-277.
• Visser A, Kroes J, van Vliet MTH, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Broers HP. Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 2012, 127(1-4), 47-64.
• Blenkinsop S, Zhao Y, Quinn J, Berryman F, Thornes J, Baker C, Fowler HJ. Downscaling future wind hazard for SE London using the UKCP09 regional climate model ensemble. Climate Research 2012, 53(2), 141-156.
• Majone B, Bovolo CI, Bellin A, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Modeling the impacts of future climate change on water resources for the Gallego river basin (Spain). Water Resources Research 2012, 48(1), W01512.
• Goderniaux P, Brouyere S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. How can large scale integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves. In: ModelCARE 2009: 7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling - Managing Groundwater and the Environment. 2011, Wuhan, China: IAHS.
• Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Fowler HJ, Orban P, Dassargues A. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios. Water Resources Research 2011, 47(12), W12516.
• Wilkinson SM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby CG. Challenges for the Assessment of Future Design Wind. In: 9th UK Conference on Wind Engineering. 2010, Bristol University, UK.
• Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Majone B, Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Fowler HJ, Bellin A, Burton A, Barceló D, Grathwohl P, Barth JAC. Climate Change, Water Resources and Pollution in the Ebro Basin – Towards an integrated approach. In: Barceló, D., Petrovic, M, ed. The Ebro River Basin. Berlin; New York: Springer, 2010, pp.295-329.
• Burton A, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby CG. Downscaling transient climate change using a Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses stochastic rainfall model. Journal of Hydrology 2010, 381(1-2), 18-32.
• Fowler HJ, Gutierrez A, Marani M, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Stollsteiner P, Brouyère S, Goderniaux P, vanVliet M, Zanetti S, Girard JF, Dautrebande S, Baes D, Mouvet C, Baran N, Baltassat JM, Bovolo CI, Bellin A, Majone B, Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Boni M, Jouin F, Klinka T, Janniche GS, Albrechtsen HJ, Wuilleumier A, Gigleux S, Banton O. HYDRO - Climate and water cycle at the basin scale. In: Finkel, M., Barth, J., Grathwohl, P, ed. Advanced Tools and Models to Improve River Basin Management in Europe in the Context of Global Change: AquaTerra. London, UK: IWA Publishing, 2010, pp.3-12.
• Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Majone B, Bellin A, Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on the Ebro River Basin. In: Barceló, D., Petrovic, M, ed. The Ebro River Basin. Berlin; New York: Springer, 2010, pp.47-75.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Supplement to: Brown S, Boorman P, McDonald R, Murphy J, 2009. Interpretation for use of surface wind speed projections from the 11-member Met Office Regional Climate Model ensemble. UK: Defra, 2010. UKCP Technical Note.
• Goderniaux P, Brouyere S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. How can large scale integrated surface - subsurface hydrological model be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves. In: Wang, Y.X, ed. Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling: Managing Groundwater and the Environment. Wuhan, China: China University of Geosciences Press, 2009, pp.137-140.
• Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. Large scale surface-subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 373(1-2), 122-138.
• Blenkinsop S, Jones PD, Dorling SR, Osborn TJ. Observed and modelled influence of atmospheric circulation on Central England Temperature extremes. International Journal of Climatology 2009, 29(11), 1642-1660.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Dubus IG, Nolan BT, Hollis JM. Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe. Environmental Pollution 2008, 154(2), 219-231.
• Centofantia T, Hollis JM, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Truckell I, Dubus I, Reichenberger S. Development of agro-environmental scenarios to support pesticide risk assessment in Europe. Science of the Total Environment 2008, 407(1), 574-588.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Changes in drought frequency, severity and duration for the British Isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Journal of Hydrology 2007, 342(1-2), 50-71.
• Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27(12), 1595-1610.
• Fowler HJ, Ekstrom M, Blenkinsop S, Smith AP. Estimating change in extreme European precipitation using a multimodel ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2007, 112(D18), D18104.
• Burger CM, Kolditz O, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S. Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain). Environmental Pollution 2007, 148(3), 842-854.
• Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27(12), 1547-1578.
• Blenkinsop S, Fisher P, Bastin L, Wood J. Evaluating the perception of uncertainty in alternative visualization strategies. Cartographica 2000, 37(1), 1-14.