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Staff Profile

Dr Stuart Dunning

Reader in Physical Geography

  • Email: stuart.dunning@ncl.ac.uk
  • Telephone: +44 (0) 191 208 3251
  • Address: School of Geography, Politics and Sociology
    Newcastle University
    Newcastle upon Tyne
    NE1 7RU
Background

Interests

Keywords: Landslides; magnitude-frequency; geomorphology; risk reduction; hazard cascades

I am a quantitative physical geographer researching hillslope processes and cascading hazards. As a geographer I maintain an active interest in the links between hazard and risk, with an applied focus on how we can reduce risks usign monitoring and modelling.

My current research interests are:

  • Hazard cascades in mountainous terrain: GLOFs, ice-rock avalanches
  • Supraglacial landslide detection and tracking
  • Landslide and moraine dam stability, and the resulting landslide-dam outburst and glacial-lake outburst floods (LSOF / GLOF)
  • Low-cost streaming monitoring systems to both warn of increased landslide threats, and, to detect in near real-time landslides occurring 

To find out more about current projects please click on the Research tab above and the Publications tab.













Research

Current Projects

1. Chamoli. Rapid adjustments to catchment sediment yield following a catastrophic rock-ice avalanche and debris flow, Uttarakhand, India

On 7th February 2021 a massive rock-ice avalanche originating from a mountain ridge in Chamoli District, Uttarakhand, Indian Himalaya, transformed into a fast-moving and catastrophic debris flow which travelled along the Rishiganga, Dhauliganga, and Alaknanda rivers. The flow killed hundreds of people, destroyed or damaged mature and under-construction hydropower projects, and caused severe modification to the channel and wider valley floor landscape, including the destabilising of steep valley sides. Once the flood subsided, rapid post-event analysis revealed that sediments deposited by the debris flow were more than 20 m thick in places, and that the flow was capable of transporting boulders exceeding 20 m in diameter. The next 12 months are a crucial period for this river system because this is when we predict that newly deposited sediments will be eroded and transported in vast quantities, and we believe that most of this activity will occur within a distance of around 50 km from the avalanche source, which includes four hydropower facilities and riverside settlements and infrastructure. This 're-activation' of sediments left behind by the flood has implications for local hydropower operators, who need to anticipate these elevated sediment loads and plan accordingly to reduce the risk of blockage to dam outlets and tunnels, avoid reduced discharge capacity, and damage to mechanical equipment. In addition, there is a high risk of further valley flank instability as this new drape of sediment is removed and banks that were undercut by the initial flow become more unstable, or undercutting is initiated in new areas. We also anticipate that sediment deposition could also present a hazard where these deposits intersect with valley floor energy and transport infrastructure. To urgently predict rates and patterns of post-flood channel modification we will use a computer model that is capable of simulating river flow and the erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment.

2. Landslides in the U.K.

Over the past 5 years I have obtained funds to undertake high resolution monitoring of landslides that threaten the U.K. road and rail network (NERC Urgency; NERC Constructing a Digital Environment; Scottish Roads Research Board; Research England 'Pitch-In')

NERC CDE: Landslide Mitigation Informatics (LIMIT): Effective decision-making for complex landslide geohazards.

Landslides or the threat of landslides can cause significant economic disruption and pose a risk to life. Relatively small events can affect wide areas, particularly where the primary road network is sparse and there is limited scope for rerouting and diversion. Rainfall triggers the majority of landslides in the U.K. and national level 24-hr forecasts exist (for emergency response agencies), but there is uncertainty surrounding what combination(s) of duration and intensity trigger slope failures on a site specific level and why similar events do not always lead to the same event/no-event outcome. These knowledge gaps are critical where decisions must actively be made to warn users of (or close) linear infrastructure such as roads and rail in order to saves lives and costs. This lack of specificity, combined with the high costs of traditionally instrumenting known 'at risk' locations, hinders effective decision-making for key authorities and their partners. As a result many essential components of the environment are not monitored in advance, or on a wide-scale / high-resolution (spatial and temporal) basis. LIMIT will make use of and develop the next generation of low-cost and low-power integrated network (and networks of networks) sensors combined with edge processing and multi-threshold trigger based streaming of key data in near real-time to allow decisions underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics. The result is low cost, wide coverage provision of data that analyses the state of the environment and forecasts future behaviour at higher spatial and temporal resolutions than previously possible, integrated into a seamless 'data chain' from site to decision-makers. Data and key derivations based on fundamental process science are automatically ingested/shared into a newly constructed digital environment via an intelligent hierarchical platform. The outputs are fit for national data sets and modelling; policy makers deciding on sensor networks for monitoring evolving risk due to long-term environmental changes; operational decision-makers tasked with real-time management of acute threats to life; right though to data provision and two-way engagement with the individuals at risk. Innovative low-cost, in situ near real-time data streaming/processing sensors resiliently linked to an integrated portal with automated reporting offers a viable and transformative solution to end-user challenges. The LIMIT feasibility study will generate new field validated intelligent monitoring informatics, underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics, to provide critical data on the increasing likelihood and then the occurrence of slope failures in real-time.

NERC URGENCY: Storm Desmond produced intense and prolonged rainfall which resulted in extensive flooding in the U.K. A number of landslides were also triggered, many of which damaged infrastructure and the transport network in particular. Our proposal is to collect transient post-event data to allow follow-on funding proposals to answer the outstanding science questions, which are relevant for multiple sites beyond the RABT, and to document the transience of key evidence to inform how 'urgently' we do need respond to future large events to adequately quantify them.

SRRB 1: Building on existing infrastructure and knowledge at the A83 Rest and Be Thankful we wish to implement a novel multi-level modular monitoring system to detect landslide activity prior to, during and after landslide events. The aim is to produce a business case for appropriate monitoring to enable cost-effective management of hazardous slopes in Scotland. 

3. Landslides onto and into glaciers (Funded PhD Student William Smith)

Slope processes play a significant role in sediment delivery to ice; a role of increasing importance as landscapes transition between glacierised and ice-free configurations. Landslide magnitude-frequency (m-f) which dictates the erosion of land exposed above ice surfaces (landslides, not glaciers, reduce peak height above ice) and the resultant sediment flux through the glacier-route-way is poorly quantified, particularly when the debris is entrained and transported en- and sub-glacially and  re-emerges (altered or unaltered) in the ablation zones. Crucially, we have been unable to elucidate climate change-driven perturbations in m-f due to the sparsity and incompleteness of existing datasets and the absence of a thorough analysis of the suite of relevant environmental drivers. Estimates of the flux from landslides onto ice range from just a few percent to 60% of total glacial sediment flux.

We hypothesise that landslides in the Arctic and Antarctic deliver significant quantities of sediment including bioavailable iron (BioFe), silica, and nitrogen to the Oceans. 

4.  Finding tsunami causing landslide deposits in the lakes of New Zealand (NERC IAPETUS Student Ryan Dick)

Relief in mountainous landscapes is a balance between the forces of tectonics, climate, and surface processes. Landslides are an effective means of limiting the growth of mountains to maintain some form of equilibrium, with seismic shaking in particular able to trigger widespread failure and downslope mobilisation of material. It is common that during earthquakes a number of very large, highly mobile landslides, termed rock avalanches, can be expected to be triggered from steep mountainsides with sufficient relief. If rock avalanche run out paths reach settlements or infrastructure, destruction is almost total and with death tolls historically measured in thousands. However, in many of the landscapes where these events happen, the rates of geomorphic processes are high enough to erode and remove most evidence of past events. As a result, the relative frequency of these catastrophic events remains poorly understood, and so the risks posed remains poorly understood.
Advantageously, in previously glaciated terrain deep fiords and inland lakes are common, and interestingly, provide a unique geomorphic setting that can capture the record of past large landslides through underwater preservation of the landslide deposits. If these landslide deposit post-date initial lake formation / relative sea level rise, they may also have triggered tsunami, which themselves pose further risks to a wider area.
Teaching
I am the module lead for GE03144 Landslides and contribute to hillslope processes, glaciers and risk teaching at each level of the Geography degree from Stage 1 to the MRes.
Publications