Staff Profile
Dr Stuart Dunning
Reader in Physical Geography
- Email: stuart.dunning@ncl.ac.uk
- Telephone: +44 (0) 191 208 3251
- Address: School of Geography, Politics and Sociology
Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU
Interests
Keywords: Landslides; magnitude-frequency; geomorphology; risk reduction; hazard cascades
I am a quantitative physical geographer researching hillslope processes and cascading hazards. As a geographer I maintain an active interest in the links between hazard and risk, with an applied focus on how we can reduce risks usign monitoring and modelling.
My current research interests are:
- Hazard cascades in mountainous terrain: GLOFs, ice-rock avalanches
- Supraglacial landslide detection and tracking
- Landslide and moraine dam stability, and the resulting landslide-dam outburst and glacial-lake outburst floods (LSOF / GLOF)
- Low-cost streaming monitoring systems to both warn of increased landslide threats, and, to detect in near real-time landslides occurring
To find out more about current projects please click on the Research tab above and the Publications tab.
Current Projects
1. Chamoli. Rapid adjustments to catchment sediment yield following a catastrophic rock-ice avalanche and debris flow, Uttarakhand, India
On 7th February 2021 a massive rock-ice avalanche originating from a mountain ridge in Chamoli District, Uttarakhand, Indian Himalaya, transformed into a fast-moving and catastrophic debris flow which travelled along the Rishiganga, Dhauliganga, and Alaknanda rivers. The flow killed hundreds of people, destroyed or damaged mature and under-construction hydropower projects, and caused severe modification to the channel and wider valley floor landscape, including the destabilising of steep valley sides. Once the flood subsided, rapid post-event analysis revealed that sediments deposited by the debris flow were more than 20 m thick in places, and that the flow was capable of transporting boulders exceeding 20 m in diameter. The next 12 months are a crucial period for this river system because this is when we predict that newly deposited sediments will be eroded and transported in vast quantities, and we believe that most of this activity will occur within a distance of around 50 km from the avalanche source, which includes four hydropower facilities and riverside settlements and infrastructure. This 're-activation' of sediments left behind by the flood has implications for local hydropower operators, who need to anticipate these elevated sediment loads and plan accordingly to reduce the risk of blockage to dam outlets and tunnels, avoid reduced discharge capacity, and damage to mechanical equipment. In addition, there is a high risk of further valley flank instability as this new drape of sediment is removed and banks that were undercut by the initial flow become more unstable, or undercutting is initiated in new areas. We also anticipate that sediment deposition could also present a hazard where these deposits intersect with valley floor energy and transport infrastructure. To urgently predict rates and patterns of post-flood channel modification we will use a computer model that is capable of simulating river flow and the erosion, transport, and deposition of sediment.
2. Landslides in the U.K.
Over the past 5 years I have obtained funds to undertake high resolution monitoring of landslides that threaten the U.K. road and rail network (NERC Urgency; NERC Constructing a Digital Environment; Scottish Roads Research Board; Research England 'Pitch-In')
NERC CDE: Landslide Mitigation Informatics (LIMIT): Effective decision-making for complex landslide geohazards.
Landslides or the threat of landslides can cause significant economic disruption and pose a risk to life. Relatively small events can affect wide areas, particularly where the primary road network is sparse and there is limited scope for rerouting and diversion. Rainfall triggers the majority of landslides in the U.K. and national level 24-hr forecasts exist (for emergency response agencies), but there is uncertainty surrounding what combination(s) of duration and intensity trigger slope failures on a site specific level and why similar events do not always lead to the same event/no-event outcome. These knowledge gaps are critical where decisions must actively be made to warn users of (or close) linear infrastructure such as roads and rail in order to saves lives and costs. This lack of specificity, combined with the high costs of traditionally instrumenting known 'at risk' locations, hinders effective decision-making for key authorities and their partners. As a result many essential components of the environment are not monitored in advance, or on a wide-scale / high-resolution (spatial and temporal) basis. LIMIT will make use of and develop the next generation of low-cost and low-power integrated network (and networks of networks) sensors combined with edge processing and multi-threshold trigger based streaming of key data in near real-time to allow decisions underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics. The result is low cost, wide coverage provision of data that analyses the state of the environment and forecasts future behaviour at higher spatial and temporal resolutions than previously possible, integrated into a seamless 'data chain' from site to decision-makers. Data and key derivations based on fundamental process science are automatically ingested/shared into a newly constructed digital environment via an intelligent hierarchical platform. The outputs are fit for national data sets and modelling; policy makers deciding on sensor networks for monitoring evolving risk due to long-term environmental changes; operational decision-makers tasked with real-time management of acute threats to life; right though to data provision and two-way engagement with the individuals at risk. Innovative low-cost, in situ near real-time data streaming/processing sensors resiliently linked to an integrated portal with automated reporting offers a viable and transformative solution to end-user challenges. The LIMIT feasibility study will generate new field validated intelligent monitoring informatics, underpinned by advanced theories of failure mechanics, to provide critical data on the increasing likelihood and then the occurrence of slope failures in real-time.
NERC URGENCY: Storm Desmond produced intense and prolonged rainfall which resulted in extensive flooding in the U.K. A number of landslides were also triggered, many of which damaged infrastructure and the transport network in particular. Our proposal is to collect transient post-event data to allow follow-on funding proposals to answer the outstanding science questions, which are relevant for multiple sites beyond the RABT, and to document the transience of key evidence to inform how 'urgently' we do need respond to future large events to adequately quantify them.
SRRB 1: Building on existing infrastructure and knowledge at the A83 Rest and Be Thankful we wish to implement a novel multi-level modular monitoring system to detect landslide activity prior to, during and after landslide events. The aim is to produce a business case for appropriate monitoring to enable cost-effective management of hazardous slopes in Scotland.
3. Landslides onto and into glaciers (Funded PhD Student William Smith)
Slope processes play a significant role in sediment delivery to ice; a role of increasing importance as landscapes transition between glacierised and ice-free configurations. Landslide magnitude-frequency (m-f) which dictates the erosion of land exposed above ice surfaces (landslides, not glaciers, reduce peak height above ice) and the resultant sediment flux through the glacier-route-way is poorly quantified, particularly when the debris is entrained and transported en- and sub-glacially and re-emerges (altered or unaltered) in the ablation zones. Crucially, we have been unable to elucidate climate change-driven perturbations in m-f due to the sparsity and incompleteness of existing datasets and the absence of a thorough analysis of the suite of relevant environmental drivers. Estimates of the flux from landslides onto ice range from just a few percent to 60% of total glacial sediment flux.
We hypothesise that landslides in the Arctic and Antarctic deliver significant quantities of sediment including bioavailable iron (BioFe), silica, and nitrogen to the Oceans.
4. Finding tsunami causing landslide deposits in the lakes of New Zealand (NERC IAPETUS Student Ryan Dick)
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Articles
- Smith WD, Dunning SA, Ross N, Telling J, Jensen EK, Shugar DH, Coe JA, Geertsema M. Revising supraglacial rock avalanche magnitudes and frequencies in Glacier Bay National Park, Alaska. Geomorphology 2023, 425, 108591.
- Rinzin S, Zhang G, Sattar A, Wangchuk S, Allen SK, Dunning S, Peng M. GLOF Hazard, Exposure, Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment of Potentially Dangerous Glacial Lakes in the Bhutan Himalaya. Journal of Hydrology 2023, 619, 129311.
- Taylor C, Robinson T, Dunning S, Carr JR, Westoby M. Glacial lake outburst floods threaten millions globally. Nature Communications 2023, 14, 487.
- Bainbridge R, Lim M, Dunning S, Winter MG, Diaz-Moreno A, Martin J, Torun H, Sparkes B, Khan MW, Jin N. Detection and forecasting of shallow landslides: lessons from a natural laboratory. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk 2022, 13(1), 686-704.
- Zhao C, Yang W, Westoby M, An B, Wu G, Wang W, Wang Z, Wang Y, Dunning S. Brief communication: An approximately 50 Mm3 ice-rock avalanche on 22 March 2021 in the Sedongpu valley, southeastern Tibetan Plateau. The Cryosphere 2022, 16(4), 1333-1340.
- Woodward J, Hein AS, Winter K, Westoby MJ, Marrero SM, Dunning SA, Lim M, Rivera A, Sugden DE. Blue-ice moraines formation in the Heritage Range, West Antarctica: Implications for ice sheet history and climate reconstruction. Quaternary Science Advances 2022, 6, 100051.
- Fan X, Dufresne A, Whiteley J, Yunus AP, Subramanian SS, Okeke CAU, Pánek T, Hermanns RL, Ming P, Strom A, Havenith HB, Dunning S, Wang G, Tacconi Stefanelli C. Recent technological and methodological advances for the investigation of landslide dams. Earth-Science Reviews 2021, 218, 103646.
- Khan MW, Dunning S, Bainbridge R, Martin J, Diaz-Moreno A, Torun H, Jin N, Woodward J, Lim M. Low-Cost Automatic Slope Monitoring Using Vector Tracking Analyses on Live-Streamed Time-Lapse Imagery. Remote Sensing 2021, 13(5), 893.
- Shugar DH, Jacquemart M, Shean D, Bhushan S, Upadhyay K, Sattar A, Schwanghart W, McBride S, de Vries MVW, Mergili M, Emmer A, Deschamps-Berger C, McDonnell M, Bhambri R, Allen S, Berthier E, Carrivick JL, Clague JJ, Dokukin M, Dunning SA, Frey H, Gascoin S, Haritashya UK, Huggel C, Kääb A, Kargel JS, Kavanaugh JL, Lacroix P, Petley D, Rupper S, Azam MF, Cook SJ, Dimri AP, Eriksson M, Farinotti D, Fiddes J, Gnyawali KR, Harrison S, Jha M, Koppes M, Kumar A, Leinss S, Majeed U, Mal S, Muhuri A, Noetzli J, Paul F, Rashid I, Sain K, Steiner J, Ugalde F, Watson CS, Westoby MJ. A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya. Science 2021, 373(6552), 300-306.
- Fan X, Dufresne A, Subramanian SS, Strom A, Hermanns R, Stefanelli CT, Hewitt K, Yunus AP, Dunning S, Capra L, Geertsema M, Miller B, Casagli N, Jansen JD, Xu Q. The formation and impact of landslide dams – State of the art. Earth-Science Reviews 2020, 203, 103116.
- Smith WD, Dunning SA, Brough S, Ross N, Telling J. GERALDINE (Google earth Engine supRaglAciaL Debris INput dEtector): A new tool for identifying and monitoring supraglacial debris inputs. Earth Surface Dynamics 2020, 8, 1053-1065.
- Winter K, Woodward J, Ross N, Dunning SA, Hein AS, Westoby MJ, Culberg R, Marrero SM, Schroeder DM, Sugden DE, Siegert MJ. Radar-detected englacial debris in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Geophysical Research Letters 2019, 46(17-18), 10454-10462.
- Harrison D, Ross N, Russell AJ, Dunning SA. Post-jökulhlaup geomorphic evolution of the Gígjökull Basin, Iceland. Annals of Glaciology 2019, 60(80), 127-137.
- Pfeifer A, Boyle MJW, Dunning S, Olivier PI. Forest floor temperature and greenness link significantly to canopy attributes in South Africa’s fragmented coastal forests. PeerJ 2019, 7, e6190.
- Benjamin J, Rosser NJ, Dunning SA, Hardy RJ, Kelfoun K, Szczucinski W. Transferability of a calibrated numerical model of rock avalanche run‐out: application to 20 rock avalanches on the Nuussuaq Peninsula, West Greenland. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms 2018, 43(15), 3057-3073.
- Sugden DE, Hein AS, Woodward J, Marrero SM, Rodes A, Dunning SA, Stuart FM, Freeman SPHT, Winter K, Westoby MJ. Corrigendum to “The million-year evolution of the glacial trimline in the southernmost Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica” [Earth and Planetary Science Letters 469 (2017) 42–52]. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2018, 502, 291-292.
- Marrero SM, Hein AS, Naylor M, Attal M, Shanks R, Winter K, Woodward J, Dunning S, Westoby M, Sugden D. Controls on subaerial erosion rates in Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2018, 501, 56-66.
- Sugden DE, Hein AS, Woodward J, Marrero SM, Rodes A, Dunning SA, Stuart FM, Freeman SPHT, Winter K, Westoby MJ. The million-year evolution of the glacial trimline in the southernmost Ellsworth Mountains, Antarctica. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2017, 469, 42-52.
- Dufresne A, Dunning SA. Process dependence of grain size distributions in rock avalanche deposits. Landslides 2017, 14(5), 1555-1563.
- Kirkham JD, Rosser NJ, Wainwright J, Vann-Jones EC, Dunning SA, Lane VS, Hawthorn DE, Strzelecki MC, Szczucinski W. Drift-dependent changes in iceberg size-frequency distributions. Scientific Reports 2017, 7, 15991.
- Hein AS, Marrero SM, Woodward J, Dunning SA, Winter K, Westoby MJ, Freeman SPHT, Shanks RP, Sugden DE. Mid-Holocene pulse of thinning in the Weddell Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet. Nature Communications 2016, 7, 12511.
- Westoby MJ, Dunning SA, Woodward J, Hein AS, Marrero SM, Winter K, Sugden DE. Interannual surface evolution of an Antarctic blue-ice moraine using multi-temporal DEMs. Earth Surface Dynamics 2016, 4, 515-529.
- Hein S, Woodward J, Marrero SM, Dunning SA, Steig EJ, Freeman SPHT, Stuart FM, Winter K, Westoby MJ, Sugden DE. Evidence for the stability of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet divide for 1.4 million years. Nature Communications 2016, 7, 10325.
- Winter K, Woodward J, Dunning SA, Turney C, Fogwill C, Hein AS, Golledge NR, Bingham RG, Marrero S, Sugden DE, Ross N. Assessing the continuity of the blue ice climate record at Patriot Hills, Horseshoe Valley, West Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 2016, 43(5), 2019-2026.
- Westoby MJ, Dunning SA, Woodward J, Hein AS, Marrero SM, Winter K, Sugden DE. Sedimentological characterization of Antarctic moraines using UAVs and Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry. Journal of Glaciology 2015, 61(230), 1088-1102.
- Dunning SA, Rosser NJ, McColl ST, Reznichenko NV. Rapid sequestration of rock avalanche deposits within glaciers. Nature Communications 2015, 6, 7964.
- Lim M, Dunning SA, Burke M, King H, King N. Quantification and implications of change in organic carbon bearing coastal dune cliffs: a multiscale analysis from the Northumberland coast, U.K. Remote Sensing of Environment 2015, 163, 1-12.
- Harrison LM, Dunning SA, Woodward J, Davies TRH. Post rock-avalanche dam outburst flood sedimentation in Ram Creek, Southern Alps, New Zealand. Geomorphology 2015, 241, 135-144.
- Winter K, Woodward J, Ross N, Dunning SA, Bingham RG, Corr HFJ, Siegert MJ. Airborne radar evidence for tributary flow switching in Institute Ice Stream, West Antarctica: implications for ice sheet configuration and dynamics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 2015, 120(9), 1611–1625.
- Weidinger JT, Korup O, Munack H, Altenberger U, Dunning SA, Tippelt G, Lottermoser W. Giant rockslides from the inside. Earth and Planetary Science Letters 2014, 389, 62-73.
- Dunning SA, Large ARG, Russell AJ, Roberts MJ, Duller R, Woodward J, Mériaux A-S, Tweed FS, Lim M. The role of multiple glacial outburst floods in proglacial landscape evolution: The 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption, Iceland. Geology 2013, 41(10), 1123-1126.
- Rosser N, Lim M, Petley D, Dunning S, Allison R. Patterns of precursory rockfall prior to slope failure. Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface 2007, 112(4), F04014.
- Rosser NJ, Petley DN, Lim M, Dunning SA, Allison RJ. Terrestrial laser scanning for monitoring the process of hard rock coastal cliff erosion. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology & Hydrogeology 2005, 38(4), 363-375.
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Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstract)
- Rosser NJ, Petley DN, Dunning SA, Lim M, Ball S. The surface expression of strain accumulation in failing rock masses. In: Proceedings of the 1st Canada-US Rock Mechanics Symposium - Rock Mechanics Meeting Society's Challenges and Demands. 2007, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
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Report
- Sparkes B, Dunning SA, Lim M, Winter MG. Monitoring and Modelling of Landslides in Scotland Characterisation of Slope Geomorphological Activity and the Debris Flow Geohazard. Wokingham: Transport Research Laboratories, 2018. PPR852.