Staff Profile

I am a Professor of Applied Statistics. I gained a PhD in Bayesian Statistics from Newcastle University in 2011 and an MMathStat from Newcastle University in 2007. I worked for the University of Strathclyde from May 2011 as a Research Associate in Risk and Reliability and as a Lecturer until August 2015.

My research interests are in the area of Bayesian analysis with focuses on the elicitation of prior information for subjective inference, vine copulas, uncertainty quantification and the design of experiments. My main application areas are in engineering and biostatistics, particularly diagnostics and cluster randomised trials.

I have published in leading journals in statistics including Bayesian Analysis, the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS), Statistics in Medicine and Technometrics and operational research including Risk Analysis and the European Journal of Operational Research. I have conducted consultancy and knowledge exchange projects with organisations including Costello Medical, NICE, Rocket Medical, Northern Gas Networks, Mologic and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport.

I am a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and a member of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. I am principal investigator on the Leverhulme grant: Loss-based Bayesian additive regression trees and the EPSRC grant SaFEGen: A statistical framework for efficient evidence generation in diagnostic development.

I enjoy running and compete in road and cross country races for Wallsend Harriers. I don't like egg whites.

Google Scholar: Click here.

Research Interests

• Expert knowledge elicitation
• Bayesian design of experiments
• Diagnostic test design and analysis
• Assurance for sample size calculations
• Vine copulas
• Risk and reliability analysis
• Bayes linear methods

Full text versions of many of my publications can be found on Newcastle University ePrints and Arxiv.

I would be interested in supervising PhD students in any of the areas above, particularly in expert knowledge elicitation and Bayesian methods for sample size calculation. I would particularly welcome applications from students bringing the own funding.

Current Research Funding

• Principal investigator, SaFEGen: A statistical framework for efficient evidence generation in diagnostic development (EPSRC)
• Principal investigator, Loss-based Bayesian additive regression trees (Leverhulme)
• Co-investigator, Holifood - Holistic approach for tackling food systems risks in a changing global environment (Horizon Europe)
• Co-investigator, EnAble: Developing and exploiting intelligent approaches for turbulent drag reduction (EPSRC)

Previous Research Funding

• Co-Investigator, UK Centre for Energy Systems Integration (EPSRC)
• Co-investigator, Flood-PREPARED: Predicting Rainfall Events by Physical Analytics of REaltime Data (NERC)

Videos of Research Talks

Elicitation of structured expert judgements from groups – protocols, experiences and interpreting the results, Risk and Uncertainty Conference (11th June 2024)

Probability elicitation for a future flooding scenario in the CReDo digital twin, Structured Expert Judgement Online Seminar Series (24th May 2022)

Prior specification via mathematical aggregation with heterogeneous groups of experts, ISBA World Meeting 2021 (28th June 2021)

Uncertainty elicitation and quantification from experts, Isaac Newton Institute Workshop on Expert Judgement (10th June 2020) 

An introduction to expert judgement elicitation: when, what and how, ICMS Energy Tutorial Day (14th December 2016)

I 2024/25 I am teaching

• Research Methods in Psychology 2a (PSY2023)
• Research Methods in Psychology 2b (PSY2024)
• Research Methods in Psychology 2c (PSY2025)

Current students can find all of the resources for these modules on Canvas.

I have also taught

• Advanced Statistics for Empirical Psychology (PSY3048)
• Introduction to Probability and R (MAS1608)
• Bayesian Methodology (MAS8384)
• Statistics for Empirical Psychology (PSY2010) 
• Introduction to Statistical Inference (MAS2901)
• Multivariate Data Analysis (MAS3325)
• Professional Skills for Accounting and Finance (ACC1012/1053)

• Articles

  • Williamson SF, Tishkovskaya SV, Wilson KJ. Hybrid sample size calculations for cluster randomised trials using assurance. Clinical Trials 2025, Epub ahead of print.
  • Wilson KJ, Farrow M, French S, Hartley D. Reconciliation of expert priors for quantities and events and application within the probabilistic Delphi method. Bayesian Analysis 2024, Epub ahead of print.
  • Nichol B, Hogg HDJ, Pepper GV, Hamoonga VM, Wilson KJ, Hurlbert AC, Read JCA. Public attitudes and acceptance of screening for neurodegenerative disease by AI analysis of retinal OCT images. Royal Society Open Science 2022, 11(4).
  • Sahlin S, Álvarez-Sánchez J, Barons M, Bolger F, Colson A, Frewer L, Hanea H, Hart A, Nane T, Nauta M, Wilson K. Online training courses on Expert Knowledge Elicitation (EKE). EFSA Supporting Publications 2024, 21(3), 8673E.
  • Diessner M, Wilson KJ, Whalley RD. On the development of a practical Bayesian optimization algorithm for expensive experiments and simulations with changing environmental conditions. Data-Centric Engineering 2024, 5, e45.
  • Gascoigne SJ, Evans N, Hall G, Kozma C, Panagiotopoulou M, Schroeder GM, Simpson C, Thornton C, Turner F, Woodhouse H, Blickwedel J, Chowdhury F, Diehl B, Duncan JS, Faulder R, Thomas RH, Wilson K, Taylor PN, Wang Y. Incomplete resection of the intracranial electroencephalographic seizure onset zone is not associated with postsurgical outcomes. Epilepsia 2024, 65(9), e163-e169.
  • Oakley JL, Forshaw M, Philipson P, Wilson KJ. Examining the impact of critical attributes on hard drive failure times: Multi-state models for left-truncated and right-censored semi-competing risks data. Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry 2024, 40(3), 684-709.
  • Yousuf AJ, Parekh G, Farrow M, Ball G, Graziadio S, Wilson K, Lendrem C, Carr L, Watson L, Parker S, Glover S, Finch J, Mistry V, Duvoix A, O'Brien L, Rees S, Lewis KE, Davis P, Brightling CE. Artificial neural network risk prediction of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations using urine biomarkers. ERJ Open Research 2024, epub ahead of print.
  • Williamson SF, Williams CJ, Lendrem BC, Wilson KJ. Sample size determination for point-of-care COVID-19 diagnostic tests: A Bayesian approach. Diagnostic and Prognostic Research 2023, 7, 17.
  • O'Connor J, Diessner M, Wilson K, Whalley RD, Wynn A, Laizet S. Optimisation and Analysis of Streamwise‑Varying Wall‑Normal Blowing in a Turbulent Boundary Layer. Flow, Turbulence and Combustion 2023, 110, 993-1021.
  • Kennedy JC, Henderson DA, Wilson KJ. Multilevel emulation for stochastic computer models with application to large offshore wind farms. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C: Applied Statistics 2023, 72(3), 608-627.
  • Wilson KJ. Bayesian design and analysis of two-arm cluster randomized trials using assurance. Statistics in Medicine 2023, 42(25), 4517-4531.
  • Gascoigne SJ, Waldmann L, Schroeder GM, Panagiotopoulou M, Blickwedel J, Chowdhury F, Cronie A, Diehl B, Duncan JS, Falconer J, Faulder R, Guan Y, Leach V, Livingstone S, Papasavvas C, Thomas RH, Wilson K, Taylor PN, Wang Y. A library of quantitative markers of seizure severity. Epilepsia 2023, 64(4), 1074-1086.
  • Johnson SR, Heaps SE, Wilson KJ, Wilkinson DJ. A Bayesian spatio-temporal model for short-term forecasting of precipitation fields. Environmetrics 2023, 34(8), e2824.
  • Diessner M, O'Connor J, Wynn A, Laizet S, Guan Y, Wilson K, Whalley RD. Investigating Bayesian optimization for expensive-to-evaluate black box functions: Application in Fluid Dynamics. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 2022, 8, 1076296.
  • Copeland C, Turner B, Powells G, Wilson K. In search of complementarity: Insights from an exercise in quantifying qualitative energy futures. Energies 2022, 15(15), 5340.
  • Wilson KJ, Williamson SF, Allen AJ, Williams CJ, Hellyer TP, Lendrem BC. Bayesian sample size determination for diagnostic accuracy studies. Statistics in Medicine 2022, 41(15), 2908-2922.
  • Oakley JL, Wilson KJ, Philipson P. A condition-based maintenance policy for continuously monitored multi-component systems with economic and failure dependence. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2022, 222, 108321.
  • Umemneku Chikere CM, Wilson K, Allen AJ, Vale L. Comparative diagnostic accuracy studies with an imperfect reference standard – A comparison of correction methods. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2021, 21, 67.
  • Stephenson V, Oates CJ, Finlayson A, Thomas C, Wilson KJ. Causal Graphical Models for Systems-Level Engineering Assessment. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 2021, 7(2), 04021011.
  • Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Assurance for sample size determination in reliability demonstration testing. Technometrics 2021, 63(4), 523-535.
  • Williams CJ, Wilson KJ, Wilson N. A comparison of prior elicitation aggregation using the classical method and SHELF. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 2021, 184(3), 920-940.
  • Heaps SE, Farrow M, Wilson KJ. Identifying the effect of public holidays on daily demand for gas. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A 2019, 183(2), 471-492.
  • Umemneku Chikere CM, Wilson K, Graziadio S, Vale L, Allen AJ. Diagnostic test evaluation methodology: A systematic review of methods employed to evaluate diagnostic tests in the absence of gold standard – An update. PLoS ONE 2019, 14(10), e0223832.
  • Wilson KJ. Specification of Informative Prior Distributions for Multinomial Models Using Vine Copulas. Bayesian Analysis 2018, 13(3), 749-766.
  • Wilson KJ, Henderson DA, Quigley J. Emulation of utility functions over a set of permutations: sequencing reliability growth tasks. Technometrics 2018, 60(3), 273-285.
  • Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Bayes linear kinematics in a dynamic survival model. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 2017, 80, 239-256.
  • Wilson KJ. An investigation of dependence in expert judgement studies with multiple experts. International Journal of Forecasting 2017, 33(1), 325–336.
  • Revie M, Wilson KJ, Holdsworth R, Yule S. On modeling player fitness in training for team sports with application to professional rugby. International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching 2016, 12(2), 183-193.
  • Bedford T, Daneshkhah A, Wilson KJ. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas. Risk Analysis 2016, 36(4), 792-815.
  • Wilson KJ, Quigley J. Allocation of tasks for reliability growth using multi-attribute utility. European Journal of Operational Research 2016, 255(1), 259-271.
  • Cooke RM, Kurowicka D, Wilson K. Sampling, conditionalizing, counting, merging, searching regular vines. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 2015, 138, 4-18.
  • Catterson VM, McMillan D, Dinwoodie I, Revie M, Quigley J, Wilson KJ. An economic impact metric for evaluating wave height forecasters for offshore wind maintenance access. Wind Energy 2015, 19(2), 199-212.
  • Bedford T, Wilson KJ. On the construction of minimum information bivariate copula families. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 2014, 66(4), 703-723.
  • Bedford T, Wilson KJ, Daneshkhah A. Assessing parameter uncertainty on coupled models using minimum information methods. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2014, 125, 3-12.
  • Wilson KJ, Quigley J, Walls L, Bedford T. Bayes linear Bayes graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies. International Journal of Performability Engineering 2013, 9(6), 715-728.
  • Quigley J, Wilson KJ, Walls L, Bedford T. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates. Risk Analysis 2013, 33(12), 2209-2224.
  • Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 2010, 224(4), 309-321.

• Book Chapters

  • Wilson KJ, Elfadaly FG, Garthwaite PH, Oakley JE. Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities. In: Hanea, AM; Nane, GF; Bedford, T; French, S, ed. Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis. Springer, 2021.
  • Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Combining judgements from correlated experts. In: Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley, ed. Elicitation: the Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. New York: Springer, 2018, pp.211-240.

• Conference Proceedings (inc. Abstracts)

  • Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Assurance for sample size determination in binomial reliability demonstration testing. In: 10th IMA International Conference on Modelling in Industrial Maintenance and Reliability. 2018.
  • Wilson KJ, Heaps SE, Farrow M. Demand forecasting over complex geographical networks: the case of Northern Gas Networks. In: Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016. 2016, Glasgow: CRC Press.