Staff Profile

I am a Reader in Applied Statistics. I gained a PhD in Bayesian Statistics from Newcastle University in 2011 and an MMathStat from Newcastle University in 2007. I worked for the University of Strathclyde from May 2011 as a Research Associate in Risk and Reliability and as a Lecturer until August 2015.

My research interests are in the area of Bayesian analysis with focuses the elicitation of prior information for subjective inference, vine copulas, uncertainty quantification and the design of experiments. My main application areas are in engineering and biostatistics, particularly diagnostics.

I have published in leading journals in statistics including Bayesian Analysis, the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society (RSS), Statistics in Medicine and Technometrics and operational research including Risk Analysis and the European Journal of Operational Research. I have conducted consultancy and knowledge exchange projects with organisations including ALSTOM Power, Rocket Medical, Northern Gas Networks, Mologic and the Department for Culture, Media and Sport.

I am a fellow of the Royal Statistical Society and a member of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis. I am co-investigator on the EPSRC-funded UK Centre for Energy Systems Integration and the EPSRC-funded EnAble project.

I am chair of the RSS North Eastern Local Group. 

I enjoy running and compete in road and cross country races for Wallsend Harriers. I don't like egg whites.

Google Scholar: Click here.

Research Interests

• Expert knowledge elicitation
• Bayesian design of experiments
• Vine copulas
• Risk and reliability analysis
• Diagnostic test design and analysis
• Assurance for sample size calculations
• Bayes linear methods

Full text versions of many of my publications can be found on Newcastle University ePrints and Arxiv.

I would be interested in supervising PhD students in any of the areas above, particularly in expert knowledge elicitation and Bayesian methods for sample size calculation. I would particularly welcome applications from students bringing the own funding.

Current Research Funding

• Co-investigator, EnAble: Developing and exploiting intelligent approaches for turbulent drag reduction (EPSRC)
• Co-Investigator, UK Centre for Energy Systems Integration (EPSRC)

• Co-investigator, Flood-PREPARED: Predicting Rainfall Events by Physical Analytics of REaltime Data (NERC)

Videos of Research Talks

Probability elicitation for a future flooding scenario in the CReDo digital twin, Structured Expert Judgement Online Seminar Series (24th May 2022)

Prior specification via mathematical aggregation with heterogeneous groups of experts, ISBA World Meeting 2021 (28th June 2021)

Uncertainty elicitation and quantification from experts, Isaac Newton Institute Workshop on Expert Judgement (10th June 2020) 

An introduction to expert judgement elicitation: when, what and how, ICMS Energy Tutorial Day (14th December 2016)

I  2022/23 I am teaching

• Statistics for Empirical Psychology (PSY2010) 
• Advanced Statistics for Empirical Psychology (PSY3048)
• Bayesian Methodology (MAS8384)

I have also taught

• Introduction to Statistical Inference (MAS2901)
  
• Multivariate Data Analysis (MAS3325)
• Professional Skills for Accounting and Finance (ACC1012/1053)

• Oakley JL, Wilson KJ, Philipson P. A condition-based maintenance policy for continuously monitored multi-component systems with economic and failure dependence. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2022, 222, 108321.
• Wilson KJ, Williamson SF, Allen AJ, Williams CJ, Hellyer TP, Lendrem BC. Bayesian sample size determination for diagnostic accuracy studies. Statistics in Medicine 2022, 41(15), 2908-2922.
• Copeland C, Turner B, Powells G, Wilson K. In search of complementarity: Insights from an exercise in quantifying qualitative energy futures. Energies 2022, 15(15), 5340.
• Diessner M, O'Connor J, Wynn A, Laizet S, Guan Y, Wilson K, Whalley RD. Investigating Bayesian optimization for expensive-to-evaluate black box functions: Application in Fluid Dynamics. Frontiers in Applied Mathematics and Statistics 2022, 8, 1076296.
• Kennedy JC, Henderson DA, Wilson KJ. Multilevel Emulation for Stochastic Computer Models with Application to Large Offshore Wind Farms. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C: Applied Statistics 2023, Epub ahead of print.
• Williams CJ, Wilson KJ, Wilson N. A comparison of prior elicitation aggregation using the classical method and SHELF. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 2021, 184(3), 920-940.
• Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Assurance for sample size determination in reliability demonstration testing. Technometrics 2021, 63(4), 523-535.
• Stephenson V, Oates CJ, Finlayson A, Thomas C, Wilson KJ. Causal Graphical Models for Systems-Level Engineering Assessment. ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering 2021, 7(2), 04021011.
• Umemneku Chikere CM, Wilson K, Allen AJ, Vale L. Comparative diagnostic accuracy studies with an imperfect reference standard – A comparison of correction methods. BMC Medical Research Methodology 2021, 21, 67.
• Wilson KJ, Elfadaly FG, Garthwaite PH, Oakley JE. Recent Advances in the Elicitation of Uncertainty Distributions from Experts for Multinomial Probabilities. In: Hanea, AM; Nane, GF; Bedford, T; French, S, ed. Expert Judgement in Risk and Decision Analysis. Springer, 2021.
• Umemneku Chikere CM, Wilson K, Graziadio S, Vale L, Allen AJ. Diagnostic test evaluation methodology: A systematic review of methods employed to evaluate diagnostic tests in the absence of gold standard – An update. PLoS ONE 2019, 14(10), e0223832.
• Heaps SE, Farrow M, Wilson KJ. Identifying the effect of public holidays on daily demand for gas. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A 2019, 183(2), 471-492.
• Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Assurance for sample size determination in binomial reliability demonstration testing. In: 10th IMA International Conference on Modelling in Industrial Maintenance and Reliability. 2018.
• Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Combining judgements from correlated experts. In: Luis C. Dias, Alec Morton, John Quigley, ed. Elicitation: the Science and Art of Structuring Judgement. New York: Springer, 2018, pp.211-240.
• Wilson KJ, Henderson DA, Quigley J. Emulation of utility functions over a set of permutations: sequencing reliability growth tasks. Technometrics 2018, 60(3), 273-285.
• Wilson KJ. Specification of Informative Prior Distributions for Multinomial Models Using Vine Copulas. Bayesian Analysis 2018, 13(3), 749-766.
• Wilson KJ. An investigation of dependence in expert judgement studies with multiple experts. International Journal of Forecasting 2017, 33(1), 325–336.
• Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Bayes linear kinematics in a dynamic survival model. International Journal of Approximate Reasoning 2017, 80, 239-256.
• Wilson KJ, Quigley J. Allocation of tasks for reliability growth using multi-attribute utility. European Journal of Operational Research 2016, 255(1), 259-271.
• Bedford T, Daneshkhah A, Wilson KJ. Approximate Uncertainty Modeling in Risk Analysis with Vine Copulas. Risk Analysis 2016, 36(4), 792-815.
• Wilson KJ, Heaps SE, Farrow M. Demand forecasting over complex geographical networks: the case of Northern Gas Networks. In: Risk, Reliability and Safety: Innovating Theory and Practice: Proceedings of ESREL 2016. 2016, Glasgow: CRC Press.
• Revie M, Wilson KJ, Holdsworth R, Yule S. On modeling player fitness in training for team sports with application to professional rugby. International Journal of Sports Science and Coaching 2016, 12(2), 183-193.
• Catterson VM, McMillan D, Dinwoodie I, Revie M, Quigley J, Wilson KJ. An economic impact metric for evaluating wave height forecasters for offshore wind maintenance access. Wind Energy 2015, 19(2), 199-212.
• Cooke RM, Kurowicka D, Wilson K. Sampling, conditionalizing, counting, merging, searching regular vines. Journal of Multivariate Analysis 2015, 138, 4-18.
• Bedford T, Wilson KJ, Daneshkhah A. Assessing parameter uncertainty on coupled models using minimum information methods. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2014, 125, 3-12.
• Bedford T, Wilson KJ. On the construction of minimum information bivariate copula families. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 2014, 66(4), 703-723.
• Ganguly T, Wilson KJ, Quigley J, Cooke RM. Reaction to ‘An approach to perform expert elicitation for engineering design risk analysis: methodology and experimental results’. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A (Statistics in Society) 2014, 177(4), 981-985.
• Quigley J, Wilson KJ, Walls L, Bedford T. A Bayes linear Bayes method for estimation of correlated event rates. Risk Analysis 2013, 33(12), 2209-2224.
• Wilson KJ, Quigley J, Walls L, Bedford T. Bayes linear Bayes graphical models in the design of optimal test strategies. International Journal of Performability Engineering 2013, 9(6), 715-728.
• Wilson KJ, Farrow M. Bayes linear kinematics in the analysis of failure rates and failure time distributions. Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Part O: Journal of Risk and Reliability 2010, 224(4), 309-321.