Newcastle University and One Utility Bill launch Innovate UK-funded Knowledge Transfer Partnership to transform energy forecasting

We are pleased to share news of a recent achievement within the School of Maths, Statistics & Physics. Newcastle University and One Utility Bill have secured funding from Innovate UK to deliver a 24-month Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTP) that will develop a next-generation, data-driven energy forecasting platform for the residential rental market. This project will be led by Prof. Hongsheng Dai and supervised by Prof. Kevin Wilson.

One Utility Bill, based in Newcastle upon Tyne, provides bundled utility packages for renters and homeowners, simplifying billing through fixed monthly payments. Founded in 2014 by Chris Dawson, a Newcastle University alumnus, One Utility Bill Ltd has continued to grow its impact and technological capability. As part of this newly funded 24 month project, one Associate will be appointed with the aim of developing a data driven software model that accurately predicts energy usage for every residential property in the UK for use in utility bills management. 

This KTP will combine industrial insight with academic expertise in statistics and artificial intelligence to address a critical challenge in energy billing for shared, multi-occupancy rental properties. Accurate estimation of aggregate household energy demand is critical to the commercial sustainability of business models based on fixed-price utility contracts for multiple occupants yet remains challenging due to the quality of real-world utility data. Although time series forecasting is well established, its application here is challenged by irregular household-level data, missing contextual features, and heterogeneous consumption behaviours. This project addresses these challenges through the application and adaptation of time series models and machine learning methods, enabling more accurate forecasting of energy demand.

The collaboration will embed these analytical tools within the business through integration into operational pricing systems, ensuring sustained industrial impact beyond the lifetime of the KTP, while supporting the provision of fairer, more transparent pricing for customers. This links back to one of One Utility Bill’s core values; Do The Right Thing. One Utility Bill always aims to produce fair and accurate pricing for customers but due to the current inherent challenge in predicting energy usage for individual dwellings, there is inevitable variation. 

One Utility Bill Ltd approached Dr. Claire Heron, Newcastle University KTP Manager, seeking expertise to address a specific challenge, which led to this exciting collaboration. The KTP team facilitated a connection with colleagues in MSP who shared aligned research interests, leading to a strong professional partnership and ultimately the development of this project.

Ian Blakemore, Knowledge Transfer Adviser at Innovate UK Business Connect, said “This partnership demonstrates exactly what the Knowledge Transfer Partnership programme is designed to achieve — combining academic excellence with ambitious, growth-focused businesses to solve complex commercial challenges. By embedding advanced statistical modelling and AI directly into its pricing and forecasting processes, One Utility Bill is positioning itself at the forefront of innovation in the utilities intermediary sector. Newcastle University’s expertise in forecasting and Bayesian analysis will be applied to a novel commercial context, delivering tangible benefits from knowledge exchange.”

Hongsheng Dai, Project Lead, said “This KTP between OUB and Newcastle University will demonstrate how statistics and artificial intelligence can transform complex data into practical solutions that benefit both businesses and customers. We look forward to building an even closer collaborative relationship in the future.”

The project aligns with the UK’s Digital and Technologies priorities and supports broader ambitions around affordable energy, responsible consumption and improved customer trust in utility pricing.