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Agents' Behaviour: Buying and Selling of Ships

Agents' Behaviour: Buying and Selling of Ships

The aim of this sponsored PhD research was to determine periods of ownership of commercial ships built in the period 1987 to date.

Project leader

Paul Stott

Prof John Mangan


20 May 2013 - 31 August 2016


The John Prime Foundation


The John Prime Foundation


In modern shipping the use of sophisticated investment valuation tools is not the rule but the exception. Investment decisions are often based on the useful economic life of the asset, which can be misleading.

The purpose of this research was to investigate the average period of vessel ownership in shipping. It determined the typical investment horizon for a vessel owner.

This facilitates marine service and equipment providers. It included sale and purchase brokers and retrofitted equipment and systems manufacturers, in targeting customers.

The analysis incorporated factors such as owner nationality and company type.

It focused on the three main ship types – bulk carriers, tankers and container ships.

The project used statistical techniques designed for time-to-event data in medical trials.

These techniques addressed the nature of the data on periods of ownership. They incorporated censored observations into the analysis.