DSC1005 : Probability and Statistical Reasoning
- Inactive for Year: 2026/27
- Module Leader(s): Dr Tom Nye
- Lecturer: Dr Jere Koskela
- Owning School: Mathematics, Statistics and Physics
- Teaching Location: Newcastle City Campus
Semesters
Your programme is made up of credits, the total differs on programme to programme.
| Semester 2 Credit Value: | 20 |
| ECTS Credits: | 10.0 |
| European Credit Transfer System | |
Aims
This module develops your ability to reason with uncertainty using probabilistic and statistical approaches. You will study probability, random variables, expectation, variance, common probability distributions, and the principles of statistical inference. The emphasis is on understanding variability in data and developing approaches for drawing reliable conclusions from real-world datasets that may be incomplete, noisy, or uncertain.
Outline Of Syllabus
Topics covered by this module include:
Introduction to random variables and common distributions (discrete and continuous)
Axioms of probability
Counting arguments
Conditional probability and independence
Mean and variance
Estimation of population quantities
Law of large numbers and central limit theorem
Parameter inference; maximum likelihood
Simple computer simulation methods for probability calculations
Teaching Methods
Teaching Activities
| Category | Activity | Number | Length | Student Hours | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 30 | 1:00 | 30:00 | Lectures |
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 1 | 20:00 | 20:00 | Preparation and completion of formative computer assessment |
| Structured Guided Learning | Lecture materials | 1 | 40:00 | 40:00 | Preparation for lectures and tutorials |
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 1 | 49:30 | 49:30 | Independent study and revision for final written exam |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Lecture | 3 | 1:00 | 3:00 | Revision session |
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 1 | 2:30 | 2:30 | Completion of written exam |
| Guided Independent Study | Assessment preparation and completion | 1 | 20:00 | 20:00 | Preparation and completion of summative computer assessment |
| Guided Independent Study | Directed research and reading | 1 | 20:00 | 20:00 | Wider reading as per provided reading list |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Practical | 5 | 1:00 | 5:00 | Computer practicals |
| Scheduled Learning And Teaching Activities | Small group teaching | 10 | 1:00 | 10:00 | Group tutorials |
| Total | 200:00 |
Teaching Rationale And Relationship
This module includes an encounter with the leading edge of research.
Assessment Methods
The format of resits will be determined by the Board of Examiners
Exams
| Description | Length | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Written Examination | 150 | 2 | A | 80 | N/A |
Other Assessment
| Description | Semester | When Set | Percentage | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report | 2 | M | 20 | Problem solving report (max. 5 pages) |
Formative Assessments
Formative Assessment is an assessment which develops your skills in being assessed, allows for you to receive feedback, and prepares you for being assessed. However, it does not count to your final mark.
| Description | Semester | When Set | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Written exercise | 2 | M | Numbas test, completable in 50 minutes |
Assessment Rationale And Relationship
The assessment structure is designed to evaluate students’ understanding and application of probability, statistics, and reasoning under uncertainty through a combination of coursework and examination.
The problem-solving report enables students to apply statistical methods and probabilistic reasoning to structured problems and datasets. Through the use of appropriate analytical and computational techniques, students develop skills in data preparation, quantitative analysis, interpretation of results, and communication of statistical findings. The report particularly supports assessment of students’ ability to apply statistical tools and interpret measures of uncertainty within practical contexts. (MLO3, MLO4)
The written examination assesses students’ understanding of the theoretical foundations of probability and statistics, including probability distributions, inference, estimation, and statistical reasoning. Students are required to solve unseen problems, apply appropriate methods, and interpret statistical outcomes and assumptions within a range of contexts. The examination provides assurance that students can independently demonstrate mathematical and statistical reasoning across the breadth of the module content. (MLO1, MLO2, MLO3, MLO4)
The formative exercise provides students with an opportunity to practise quantitative problem solving and receive feedback on their understanding and application of key statistical concepts prior to summative assessment.
Together, the assessments ensure students demonstrate both conceptual understanding and applied analytical competence appropriate to a Stage 1 probability and statistics module.
Alternative assessment:
For students with a Student Support Plan (SSP) who have alternative assessment as a reasonable adjustment and/or students with supported Personal Extenuating Circumstances (PEC), it may be necessary to set an alternative assessment as presented below. Due to the professional requirements of some programmes, alternative assessments may not be available even where students are eligible.
An oral examination may be offered as an alternative to the written examination where appropriate. This will normally comprise a 15-minute student-led presentation on a prepared topic from the module syllabus, followed by 15 minutes of questioning covering the wider module content. The oral examination will assess the same learning outcomes as the written examination, including statistical reasoning, conceptual understanding, interpretation of uncertainty, and problem-solving ability.
Reading Lists
Timetable
- Timetable Website: www.ncl.ac.uk/timetable/
- DSC1005's Timetable