Staff Profile
Professor Hayley Fowler
Professor of Climate Change Impacts
- Email: hayley.fowler@ncl.ac.uk
- Telephone: +44 (0) 191 208 7113
- Fax: +44 (0) 191 208 6669
- Personal Website: http://www.staff.ncl.ac.uk/h.j.fowler/
- Address: Water Resource Systems Engineering Group
School of Engineering
Cassie Building (Room 3.08)
Newcastle University
Newcastle upon Tyne
NE1 7RU
UK
Background
Hayley Fowler is Professor of Climate Change Impacts in the Water Resource Systems Engineering Group in the School of Engineering.
Background
Hayley Fowler is a hydroclimatologist with >15 years of experience in analysing the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological systems and has published more than 90 ISI-cited articles since 2000. She held a NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship (2006-10) examining the links between atmospheric circulation patterns, extreme rainfall and flooding, was awarded a Philip Leverhulme Prize (2011), Royal Society Wolfson Research Merit Award (2014) and made a Fellow of the American Geophysical Union in 2018. She specialises in the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological and water resource systems, examining recent trends in extremes and future projections and their impacts on flood and drought risks. She has been instrumental in the analysis of climate model outputs and development of new downscaling techniques to bridge the gap between modellers and users of climate information (e.g. UKCP09 Weather Generator). She led the HYDRO sub-project of the AquaTerra FP6 Integrated Project from 2004-09 with a budget of €1M. She leads other funded research on extremes e.g. CONVEX (NERC CWC, 2011-14, PI) and FUTURE-STORMS (NERC, 2018-2021) develop high-resolution regional climate models to understand convective rainfall processes. Her ERC Consolidator's Award (INTENSE, €2M, 2014-2020) examines changes to sub-daily rainfall extremes around the globe. She collaborates widely, particularly with NCAR, US, where she has held a number of visiting scientist positions.
Qualifications
Hayley did a BA in Geography at Cambridge University (1996) before moving to Newcastle University for an MSc in Water Resource Systems Engineering (1997) and PhD in climate change impacts on water resources (2000), staying at Newcastle for her post-doctoral training.
Roles and Responsibilities
Hayley is the Director of the ONE Planet NERC Doctoral Training Programme, a Member of University Promotions Committee (2018-), a key Member of University NERC demand management panel, a Member of the University Public Lectures Committee (2017-) and a Member of the School of Engineering REF 2021 Strategy Committee (2017-).
She led the group's contribution to the British Science Festival which was held in Newcastle in Sep 2013. She sat on School Executive Committee and one of the REF2013 impact case-study panels. She acts as a Career Pathways Review Adviser and a mentor for Research Staff in SAgE. She is MSc selector for the group's MSc programmes.
She is on the International Advisory Board of WIRES Water.
She has bee Chief Editor of the international journal Frontiers in Interdisciplinary Climate Studies since 2017 after serving as an Associate Editor since 2013. She is also on the Editorial Board of Climate Risk Management and an Associate Editor of PLOS ONE.
Memberships
Elected Member of British Hydrological Society main committee, 2004-2007
Honorary Secretary of the British Hydrological Society, 2006-2008
Member of British Hydrological Society (1997-)
Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (2018); Member of American Geophysical Union (2005-)
Member of European Geosciences Union (2014-)
Member of Newton Prize Reviewer Panel (2017-)
Member of Newton International Fellowships Committee: Physical Sciences, Royal Society (2017-)
Member of AGU Hydrologic Sciences Award Committee (2017-)
Member of NERC Peer Review College (2010–), Core panel member of NERC Panel C (now B) (2013-)
Member of UK Research and Innovation Future Leaders Fellowships (UKRI FLF) programme Peer Review College (2018-)
Member of BSI committee B/505/21/11 Climate change, rainfall maps (2014-present)
Industrial Experience
Hayley has experience of working with industry through consultancy contracts over the past 10 years covering climate change impact assessments, flood and drought risks, water resource modelling etc for: Royal Haskoning, WRc, Northumbrian Water Ltd, Willis Re., Environment Agency, CH2MHill.
She was also involved in the development of the UKCP09 Weather Generator for DEFRA.
Outreach
Hayley has been involved in many outreach activities including media interviews (print, radio and TV), public lectures, schools' events, 6th form debates, cafe scientifique talks and has been consulted on the development of TV programmes on extreme weather and climate change.
She gave the Joseph Lister Award lecture at the 2013 British Science Festival in Newcastle - What is happening to our weather?
Research
Research Interests
Hayley has more than 15 years experience analysing the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological systems and has published more than 90 ISI-cited articles since 2000. She has a large research group - currently 7 post-docs and 5 PhD students.
She specialises in the analysis of the impacts of climate change and variability on hydrological and water resources systems, in particular examining recent trends in extremes and future projections and their impacts on flood and drought risks. She has also been instrumental in the analysis of climate model outputs and the development of new downscaling techniques, in particular the use of probabilistic methods and weather or rainfall generators, to bridge the gap between climate modellers and users of climate information.
Her current funded research includes four main themes:
i) improving projections of extreme rainfall change by developing high-resolution regional climate models to understand convective processes;
ii) examining climatic changes in the Karakoram Himalaya and their impacts on hydrology and water resources;
iii) producing new downscaling methods to enable improved climate information services for Europe; and
iv) developing web-based tools to allow downscaling methods to be used for climate change impact assessments outside academia.
Recent Invited Presentations
Fowler H.J. 2014. Challenges for RCM evaluation and application when moving to high resolutions. Invited Keynote at: 21st Century Challenges in Regional Climate Modelling, Lund, Sweden, 16-19 June 2014.
Fowler H.J., 2013. What is happening to our weather? The Joseph Lister Award Lecture 2013, British Science Festival, 11th September 2013, Newcastle upon Tyne.
Fowler, H.J. Quantifying robust changes to extreme rainfall under global warming. Invited seminar at RMS-BHS meeting “Impacts of changes in the hydrological cycle”. Reading University, 19th June 2013.
Fowler, H.J. Quantifying robust changes to extreme rainfall under global warming. Invited seminar at GFZ, Potsdam, Germany, 21st May 2013.
- Fowler, H.J. Quantifying robust changes to extreme rainfall under global warming. Invited seminar in the Dean’s seminar series, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia, 5th April 2013
- Fowler, H.J. Quantifying robust changes in extreme rainfall: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological extremes. Invited Seminar at Durham University Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, 15th October 2012.
- Fowler, H.J. Quantifying Robust Changes in Extreme Precipitation. Invited talk at “Quantifying robust changes in the water cycle on large scales”, Reading University, 26th-28th June 2012.
- Fowler, H.J. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological extremes. Invited talk at CMOS-AMS Congress 2012, Montreal, Canada, 30th May 2012.
- Forsythe, N.D., Fowler, H.J. Assessment of cryosphere response to climate forcing in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) & Hindu Kush/Karakoram/Himalaya (HKH). Invited Keynote to the International symposium on Cryosphere and Climate Change (ISCCC-2012) at Manali (India), 2-4 April 2012.
- Fowler, H.J. New developments of a weather generator downscaling approach and its application to climate change impact studies for water resources management. Invited seminar to IMAGe, NCAR, US, 16th February 2011.
- Fowler, H.J. Climate change in the
North-East. NE 3rd Climate Change
Conference,
Discovery Museum, Newcastle upon Tyne, 5th June 2010.
Fellowships and other Prizes
Fellow of the American Geophysical Union (2018)
Royal Society Wolfson Research Fellow (2014-2019)
ERC Consolidators Award (2014-2019)
British Science Association Joseph Lister Award Lecture (2012/2013)
Philip Leverhulme Prize (2011)
NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship (2006-10)
Completed
2004-2009: Andrew Smith: A national scale rainfall analysis and event-based model of extremes for the UK
2007-2011: Jamie Ledingham: The estimation of flood frequency curves by mapping from rainfall frequency curves
2008-2012: Mari Jones: Characterising and modelling time-varying rainfall extremes and their climatic drivers.
2008-2013: Nathan Forsythe: Investigating the impact of climate change on hydro-climatological variability and water resources in the Upper Indus Basin.
2007-2014: Vesna Tripkovic: Quantifying and upscaling surface and subsurface runoff and nutrient flows under climate variability.
2009-2014: Selma De Brito Guerreiro: Water Resources and Drought in International Iberian River Basins Under Future Climates
2012-2013: (MPhil) Sam Cawthorne-Kitching: Understanding weather patterns, climate variation and change across Northumberland National Park
2007-2017: Alex Leathard: A Water Grid for the UK
2011-2016: Elizabeth Lewis: A robust multi-purpose hydrological model for Great Britain
2014-2018: Doug Richardson: The predictability of UK drought using European weather patterns
2015-2018: David Pritchard: Evaluation of climate and hydrological models for impact projections in the Upper Indus Basin
2014: Motasem Darwish: Regional statistical modelling of hourly extreme precipitation in the United Kingdom (submitted, awaiting viva)
2015: Ben Smith: Modelling flooding from multiple sources using coupled models and multi-scale high-resolution datasets
2017: Tessa Gough: Can citizen science observations improve real-time flood risk assessment - bringing the crowd to the cloud?
2018: Roberto Villalobos-Herrera: Computer modelling of sustainable urban drainage systems' current and future hydrologic and hydraulic performance.
Reviewer
Reviewer for: NSF, CFCAS, NERC, EPSRC, Irish EPA, IPCC AR4 (WGI and WGII), Swiss National Science Foundation, Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research, LWEC.
Reviewer for >30 journals.
Invited External Reviewer for CH2018 (Swiss Climate Change Scenarios) Report
Expert reviewer for IPCC Working Group I 4th Assessment Report
Expert reviewer for IPCC Working Group II 4th Assessment Report
Reviewed reports for: U.S. Environment Protection Agency, LWEC Climate Change Impacts report card for Water and Biodiversity, 2012-13, 2015-16;
Chair
IMAGe Theme of the Year 2012, NCAR - Uncertainty in Climate Change Research: An Integrated Approach (budget $125K); 31 participants in summer school/workshop.
ASP Summer Colloquium 2014, NCAR, Boulder, US: Uncertainty in Climate Research: An Integrated Approach; 38 participants in summer school/workshop.
Selected Recent Research Grants
-
CLOKE et al. (2016-2018) TENDERLY: Towards END-to End flood forecasting and a tool for ReaL-time catchment susceptibility. NERC FFIR, FOWLER PI at Newcastle, £371,257.
DAWSON et al. (2016-2017) STRAIN: Storm Risk Assessment of Interdependent Infrastructure Networks. NERC Environmental Risks to Infrastructure, Co-I, £160,668.
FOWLER (2015-2017) CL10 - Rainfall Intensity for Sewer Design (Phase I and II). UK Water Industry Research, Co-I, £26,000.
FOWLER (2015-2016) Harnessing climate data and remote sensing products to promote community-led innovation in adaptive natural resource management for improved food security in the changing climate of the Kumaon Lesser Himalaya. British Council, PI, £18,990.
- FOWLER (2014-2019) INTENSE: INTElligent use of climate models for adaptatioN to non-Stationary hydrological Extremes. European Research Council Consolidators Grant. £1,661,790.
- CLOKE et al. (2013-2016) SINATRA: Susceptibility of catchments to INTense RAinfall and flooding. £2.7M. NERC Flooding From Intense Rainfall. FOWLER PI at Newcastle. £846,013.
- FOWLER (2012-2014) Philip Leverhulme Prize. £70,000.
- FOWLER et al. (2011-2014) CONVEX: Using Observational Evidence and Process Understanding to Improve Predictions of Extreme Rainfall Change. £415,632. NERC Changing Water Cycle
- VAN OSS et al. (2011-2014) ECLISE: Enabling CLimate Information Services for Europe. FOWLER PI at Newcastle. £180,357. EU FP7.
- HALL et al. (2008-2013) Earth systems engineering: sustainable systems engineering for adapting to global change. £1,312,129. EPSRC Platform Grant (FOWLER Co-I).
- FOWLER et al. (2008-2011) SWERVE: Severe Weather Events Risk and Vulnerability Estimator. £558,445. Part of the EPSRC Community Resilience to Extreme Weather Programme.
- KILSBY et al. (2007-2010) UKCP09 Weather Generator. £185,840. DEFRA. FOWLER Co-I.
- KILSBY et al. (2007-2010) FRACAS: a next generation national Flood Risk Assessment under climate ChAnge Scenarios. £204,382. Part of the NERC FREE programme. FOWLER Co-I.
- FOWLER (2006-2010) Is flood risk increasing? Exploring the relationship between atmospheric circulation, extreme rainfall and flooding. £221,711. NERC Postdoctoral Fellowship Award.
- GRATHWOHL et al. (2004-2009) AquaTerra “Integrated modelling of the river-sediment-soil-groundwater system; advanced tools for the management of catchment areas and river basins in the context of global change”. FP6 IP (€13M); FOWLER PI at Newcastle (£250,000) and led HYDRO sub-project (budget €1M)
Teaching
Teaching
Module Leader
CEG8505: Climate Change: Earth Systems, Future Scenarios and Threats
CEG8514: Climate Change: Vulnerability, Impacts and Adaptation
Contributions to:
CEG2001: Design of Sustainable Engineering Systems 2
CEG8524: Water Management: Issues and Challenges
CEG8526: Hydrosystems Modelling and Management
Publications
- Zhang R, Corte-Real J, Moreira M, Kilsby C, Birkinshaw S, Burton A, Fowler HJ, Forsythe N, Nunes JP, Sampaio E, dos Santos FL, Mourato S. Downscaling climate change of water availability, sediment yield and extreme events: Application to a Mediterranean climate basin. International Journal of Climatology 2019, 39(6), 2947-2963.
- Pritchard DMW, Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, O'Donnell GM, Li X-F. Evaluation of Upper Indus near-surface climate representation by WRF in the High Asia Refined Analysis. Journal of Hydrometeorology 2019, 20(3), 467-487.
- Archer D, O'Donnell G, Lamb R, Warren S, Fowler HJ. Historical flash floods in England: New regional chronologies and database. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2019, 12(S1), e12526.
- Pumo D, Carlino G, Blenkinsop S, Arnone E, Fowler H, Noto LV. Sensitivity of extreme rainfall to temperature in semi-arid Mediterranean regions. Atmospheric Research 2019, 225, 30-44.
- Richardson D, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Neal R. A new precipitation and drought climatology based on weather patterns. International Journal of Climatology 2018, 38(2), 630-648.
- Darwish MM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tye MR. A regional frequency analysis of UK sub-daily extreme precipitation and assessment of their seasonality. International Journal of Climatology 2018, 38(13), 4758-4776.
- Lewis E, Quinn N, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Freer J, Tanguy M, Hitt O, Coxon G, Bates P, Woods R. A rule based quality control method for hourly rainfall data and a 1 km resolution gridded hourly rainfall dataset for Great Britain: CEH-GEAR1hr. Journal of Hydrology 2018, 564, 930-943.
- Archer DR, Fowler HJ. Characterising flash flood response to intense rainfall and impacts using historical information and gauged data in Britain. Journal of Flood Risk Management 2018, 11(S1), S121-S133.
- Kong Q, Zheng J, Fowler HJ, Ge Q, Xi J. Climate change and summer thermal comfort in China. Theoretical and Applied Climatology 2019, 137(1-2), 1077-1088.
- Barbero R, Abatzoglou JT, Fowler HJ. Contribution of large-scale midlatitude disturbances to hourly precipitation extremes in the United States. Climate Dynamics 2019, 52(1-2), 197-208.
- Guerreiro SB, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, Westra S, Lenderink G, Blenkinsop S, Lewis E, Li X-F. Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes. Nature Climate Change 2018, 8, 803-807.
- Lewis E, Birkinshaw S, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ. Development of a system for automated setup of a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrological model for catchments in Great Britain. Environmental Modelling & Software 2018, 108, 102-110.
- Dunn S, Wilkinson S, Alderson D, Fowler H, Galasso C. Fragility Curves for Assessing the Resilience of Electricity Networks Constructed from an Extensive Fault Database. Natural Hazards Review 2018, 19(1), 04017019.
- Ali H, Fowler HJ, Mishra V. Global Observational Evidence of Strong Linkage Between Dew Point Temperature and Precipitation Extremes. Geophysical Research Letters 2018, 45(22), 12320-12330.
- Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Roberts N, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Large-scale predictors for extreme hourly precipitation events in convection-permitting climate simulations. Journal of Climate 2018, 31(6), 2115-2131.
- Chan SC, Kahana R, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ. Projected changes in extreme precipitation over Scotland and Northern England using a high-resolution regional climate model. Climate Dynamics 2018, 51(9-10), 3559-3577.
- Forestieri A, Lo Conti F, Blenkinsop S, Cannarozzo M, Fowler HJ, Noto LV. Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation in Sicily (Italy). International Journal of Climatology 2018, 38(51), e698-e716.
- Lenderink G, Barbero R, Westra S, Fowler HJ. Reply to comments on “Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling: a two-way causality?”. International Journal of Climatology 2018, 38(12), 4664-4666.
- Shepherd TG, Boyd E, Calel RA, Chapman SC, Dessai S, Dima-West IM, Fowler HJ, James R, Maraun D, Martius O, Senior CA, Sobel AH, Stainforth DA, Tett SFB, Trenberth KE, van den Hurk BJJM, Watkins NW, Wilby RL, Zenghelis DA. Storylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change. Climatic Change 2018, 151(3-4), 555-571.
- Barbero R, Westra S, Lenderink G, Fowler HJ. Temperature-extreme precipitation scaling: A two-way causality?. International Journal of Climatology 2018, 38(S1), e1274-e1279.
- Forestieri A, Arnone E, Blenkinsop S, Candela A, Fowler H, Noto LV. The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily, Italy. Hydrological Processes 2018, 32(3), 332-348.
- Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Barbero R, Chan SC, Guerreiro SB, Kendon E, Lenderink G, Lewis E, Li X-F, Westra S, Alexander L, Allan RP, Berg P, Dunn RJH, Ekström M, Evans J, Holland G, Jones R, Kjellström E, Klein-Tank A, Lettenmaier D, Mishra V, Prein AF, Sheffield J, Tye MR. The INTENSE project: using observations and models to understand the past, present and future of sub-daily rainfall extremes. Advances in Science & Research 2018, 15, 117–126.
- Li X-F, Fowler HJ, Forsythe N, Blenkinsop S, Pritchard D. The Karakoram/Western Tibetan Vortex: seasonal and year-to-year variability. Climate Dynamics 2018, 51(9-10), 3883–3906.
- Dale M, Hosking A, Gill E, Kendon E, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Chan S. Understanding how changing rainfall may impact on urban drainage systems; lessons from projects in the UK and USA. Water Practice and Technology 2018, 13(3), 654-661.
- Richardson D, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Bardossy A. Weekly to multi-month persistence in sets of daily weather patterns over Europe and the North Atlantic Ocean. International Journal of Climatology 2019, 39(4), 2041-2056.
- Kendon EJ, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. When will we detect changes in short-duration precipitation extremes?. Journal of Climate 2018, 31(7), 2945-2964.
- Archer DR, Parkin G, Fowler HJ. Assessing long term flash flooding frequency using historical information. Hydrology Research 2017, 48(1), 1-16.
- Guerreiro SB, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ. Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia. International Journal of Climatology 2017, 37(15), 5024-5034.
- Birkinshaw SJ, Guerreiro SB, Nicholson A, Liang Q, Quinn P, Zhang L, He B, Yin J, Fowler HJ. Climate change impacts on Yangtze River discharge at the Three Gorges Dam. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2017, 21(4), 1911-1927.
- Kendon EJ, Ban N, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, Roberts MJ, Chan SC, Evans JP, Fosser G, Wilkinson JM. Do convection-permitting regional climate models improve projections of future precipitation change?. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2017, 98(1), 79-93.
- Guerreiro SB, Birkinshaw S, Kilsby C, Fowler HJ, Lewis E. Dry getting drier − the future of transnational river basins in Iberia. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 2017, 12, 238-252.
- Morbidelli R, Saltalippi C, Flammini A, Cifrodelli M, Picciafuoco T, Corradini C, Casas-Castillo MC, Fowler HJ, Wilkinson SM. Effect of temporal aggregation on the estimate of annual maximum rainfall depths for the design of hydraulic infrastructure systems. Journal of Hydrology 2017, 554, 710-720.
- Lenderink G, Fowler HJ. Hydroclimate: Understanding rainfall extremes. Nature Climate Change 2017, 7(6), 391-393.
- Fu G, Wilkinson S, Dawson RJ, Fowler HJ, Kilsby C, Panteli M, Mancarella P. Integrated Approach to Assess the Resilience of Future Electricity Infrastructure Networks to Climate Hazards. IEEE Systems Journal 2018, 12(4), 3169-3180.
- Barbero R, Fowler HJ, Lenderink G, Blenkinsop S. Is the intensification of precipitation extremes with global warming better detected at hourly than daily resolutions?. Geophysical Research Letters 2017, 44(2), 974-983.
- Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Li XF, Blenkinsop S, Pritchard D. Karakoram temperature and glacial melt driven by regional atmospheric circulation variability. Nature Climate Change 2017, 7, 664-670.
- Dale M, Luck B, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Gill E, Bennett J, Kendon EJ, Chan SC. New climate change rainfall estimates for sustainable drainage. Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers - Engineering Sustainability 2017, 170(4), 214-224.
- Gill EJ, Dale JM, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ. Predicting how collection systems will operate in the 2050s in response to changing rainfall patterns. In: Water Environment Federation Technical Exhibition and Conference 2017, WEFTEC 2017. 2017, Chicago, IL, USA: Water Environment Federation.
- Blenkinsop S, Lewis E, Chan SC, Fowler HJ. Quality-control of an hourly rainfall dataset and climatology of extremes for the UK. International Journal of Climatology 2017, 37(2), 722-740.
- Lenderink G, Barbero R, Loriaux JM, Fowler HJ. Super-Clausius-Clapeyron scaling of extreme hourly convective precipitation and its relation to large-scale atmospheric conditions. Journal of Climate 2017, 30(15), 6037-6052.
- Walsh CL, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Burton A, Dawson RJ, Glenis V, Manning LJ, Jahanshahi G, Kilsby CG. Adaptation of water resource systems to an uncertain future. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2016, 20, 1869-1884.
- Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S. Downturn in scaling of UK extreme rainfall with temperature for future hottest days. Nature Geosciences 2016, 9(1), 24-28.
- Guerreiro SB, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ. Rainfall in Iberian transnational basins: a drier future for the Douro, Tagus and Guadiana?. Climatic Change 2016, 135(3), 467-480.
- Tye MR, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Stephenson DB, Kilsby CG. Simulating multimodal seasonality in extreme daily precipitation occurrence. Journal of Hydrology 2016, 537, 117-129.
- Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S. The characteristics of summer sub-hourly rainfall over the southern UK in a high-resolution convective permitting model. Environmental Research Letters 2016, 11(9).
- Forsythe N, Hardy AJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby CG, Archer DR, Hashmi MZ. A detailed cloud fraction climatology of the Upper Indus Basin and its implications for near surface air temperature. Journal of Climate 2015, 28(9), 3537-3556.
- Hegerl GC, Black E, Allan RP, Ingram WJ, Polson D, Trenberth KE, Chadwick RS, Arkin PA, Sarojini BB, Becker A, Dai AG, Durack PJ, Easterling D, Fowler HJ, Kendon EJ, Huffman GJ, Liu CL, Marsh R, New M, Osborn TJ, Skliris N, Stott PA, Vidale PL, Wijffels SE, Wilcox LJ, Willett KM, Zhang XB. Challenges in Quantifying Changes in the Global Water Cycle. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 2015, 96(7), 1097-1115.
- Pepin N, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Baraer M, Caceres EB, Forsythe N, Fowler H, Greenwood G, Hashmi MZ, Liu XD, Miller JR, Ning L, Ohmura A, Palazzi E, Rangwala I, Schöner W, Severskiy I, Shahgedanova M, Wang MB, Williamson SN, Yang DQ. Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nature Climate Change 2015, 5(5), 424-430.
- Forsythe N, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Exploring objective climate classification for the Himalayan arc and adjacent regions using gridded data sources. Earth System Dynamics 2015, 6(1), 311-326.
- Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. An Hourly and Multi-Hourly Extreme Precipitation Climatology for the UK and Long-Term Changes in Extremes. In: Second International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management (ICVRAM) and the Sixth International Symposium on Uncertainty, Modeling, and Analysis (ISUMA). 2014, Liverpool, UK: American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE).
- Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Kilsby CG, Archer DR, Harpham C, Hashmi MZ. Application of a stochastic weather generator to assess climate change impacts in a semi-arid climate: The Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Hydrology 2014, 517, 1019-1034.
- Wilby RL, Fowler HJ, Donovan B. Detecting changes in winter precipitation extremes and fluvial flood risk. In: Applied Uncertainty Analysis for Flood Risk Management. London: Imperial College Press, 2014, pp.578-604.
- Westra S, Fowler HJ, Evans JP, Alexander LV, Berg P, Johnson F, Kendon EJ, Lenderink G, Roberts NM. Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall. Reviews of Geophysics 2014, 52(3), 522-555.
- Kendon EJ, Roberts NM, Fowler HJ, Roberts MJ, Chan SC, Senior CA. Heavier summer downpours with climate change revealed by weather forecast resolution model. Nature Climate Change 2014, 4(7), 570-576.
- Jones M, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Objective classification of extreme rainfall regions for the UK and updated estimates of trends in regional extreme rainfall. International Journal of Climatology 2014, 34(3), 751-765.
- Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM. Projected increases in summer and winter UK sub-daily precipitation extremes from high-resolution regional climate models. Environmental Research Letters 2014, 9(8), 084019.
- Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Roberts NM, Ferro CAT. The value of high-resolution Met Office regional climate models in the simulation of multi-hourly precipitation extremes. Journal of Climate 2014, 27(16), 6155-6174.
- Jones MR, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Blenkinsop S. An assessment of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall in the UK between 1961 and 2009. International Journal of Climatology 2013, 33(5), 1178-1194.
- Chan SC, Kendon EJ, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Ferro CAT, Stephenson DB. Does increasing the spatial resolution of a regional climate model improve the simulated daily precipitation?. Climate Dynamics 2013, 41(5-6), 1475-1495.
- Blenkinsop S, Harpham C, Burton A, Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Fowler HJ. Downscaling transient climate change with a stochastic weather generator for the Geer catchment, Belgium. Climate Research 2013, 57(2), 95-109.
- Ekstrom M, Kuruppu N, Wilby RL, Fowler HJ, Chiew FHS, Dessai S, Young WJ. Examination of climate risk using a modified uncertainty matrix framework-Applications in the water sector. Global Environmental Change 2013, 23(1), 115-129.
- Sharif M, Archer DR, Fowler HJ, Forsythe ND. Trends in timing and magnitude of flow in the Upper Indus Basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2013, 17, 1503-1516.
- van Vliet M, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Harpham C, Broers H, Fowler HJ. A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe. Climatic Change 2012, 111(2), 249-277.
- Forsythe N, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Assessment of Runoff Sensitivity in the Upper Indus Basin to Interannual Climate Variability and Potential Change Using MODIS Satellite Data Products. Mountain Research and Development 2012, 32(1), 16-29.
- Visser A, Kroes J, van Vliet MTH, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Broers HP. Climate change impacts on the leaching of a heavy metal contamination in a small lowland catchment. Journal of Contaminant Hydrology 2012, 127(1-4), 47-64.
- Blenkinsop S, Zhao Y, Quinn J, Berryman F, Thornes J, Baker C, Fowler HJ. Downscaling future wind hazard for SE London using the UKCP09 regional climate model ensemble. Climate Research 2012, 53(2), 141-156.
- Majone B, Bovolo CI, Bellin A, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Modeling the impacts of future climate change on water resources for the Gallego river basin (Spain). Water Resources Research 2012, 48(1), W01512.
- Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Archer DR. Opportunities from remote sensing for supporting water resources management in village/valley scale catchments in the Upper Indus Basin. Water Resources Management 2012, 26(4), 845-871.
- Walsh C, Fowler H, Kilsby C, Black A. Role of hydrology in managing consequences of a changing global environment. Hydrology Research 2012, 43(5), 548-550.
- Coulthard TJ, Ramirez J, Fowler HJ, Glenis V. Using the UKCP09 probabilistic scenarios to model the amplified impact of climate change on drainage basin sediment yield. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2012, 16(11), 4401-4416.
- Viviroli D, Archer DR, Buytaert W, Fowler HJ, Greenwood GB, Hamlet AF, Huang Y, Koboltschnig G, Litaor MI, Lopez-Moreno JI, Lorentz S, Schadler B, Schreier H, Schwaiger K, Vuille M, Woods R. Climate change and mountain water resources: overview and recommendations for research, management and policy. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2011, 15(2), 471-504.
- Goderniaux P, Brouyere S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. How can large scale integrated surface - subsurface hydrological models be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves. In: ModelCARE 2009: 7th International Conference on Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling - Managing Groundwater and the Environment. 2011, Wuhan, China: IAHS.
- Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Fowler HJ, Orban P, Dassargues A. Modeling climate change impacts on groundwater resources using transient stochastic climatic scenarios. Water Resources Research 2011, 47(12), W12516.
- Burton A, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE. A stochastic model for the spatial-temporal simulation of nonhomogeneous rainfall occurrence and amounts. Water Resources Research 2010, 46(11), W11501.
- Jones M, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Blenkinsop S. An updated regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961-2009. In: BHS Third International Symposium:Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment. 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne.
- Forsythe N, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Assessing climate pressures on glacier-melt and snowmelt-derived runoff in the Hindu Kush-Karakoram sector of the Upper Indus Basin. In: Proceedings of the BHS Third International Symposium: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment (BHS). 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
- Wilkinson SM, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby CG. Challenges for the Assessment of Future Design Wind. In: 9th UK Conference on Wind Engineering. 2010, Bristol University, UK.
- Viviroli D, Archer D, Buytaert W, Fowler H, Greenwood G, Hamlet A, Huang Y, Koboltschnig G, Litaor M, López-Moreno J, Lorentz S, Schädler B, Schwaiger K, Vuille M, Woods R. Climate change and mountain water resources: Overview and recommendations for research, management and politics. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions 2010, 7(3), 2829-2895.
- Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Majone B, Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Fowler HJ, Bellin A, Burton A, Barceló D, Grathwohl P, Barth JAC. Climate Change, Water Resources and Pollution in the Ebro Basin – Towards an integrated approach. In: Barceló, D., Petrovic, M, ed. The Ebro River Basin. Berlin; New York: Springer, 2010, pp.295-329.
- Fowler HJ, Cooley D, Sain SR, Thurston M. Detecting change in UK extreme precipitation using results from the climateprediction.net BBC Climate Change Experiment. Extremes 2010, 13(2), 241-267.
- Fowler HJ, Wilby RL. Detecting changes in seasonal precipitation extremes using regional climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk. Water Resources Research 2010, 46(3), W03525.
- Fowler HJ, Wilby RL, Cooley D, Sain SR, Thurston M. Detecting changes in UK precipitation extremes using climate model projections: Implications for managing fluvial flood risk. In: Proceedings of the BHS Third International Symposium: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment (BHS). 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
- Burton A, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Kilsby CG. Downscaling transient climate change using a Neyman–Scott Rectangular Pulses stochastic rainfall model. Journal of Hydrology 2010, 381(1-2), 18-32.
- Fowler HJ, Gutierrez A, Marani M, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Stollsteiner P, Brouyère S, Goderniaux P, vanVliet M, Zanetti S, Girard JF, Dautrebande S, Baes D, Mouvet C, Baran N, Baltassat JM, Bovolo CI, Bellin A, Majone B, Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Boni M, Jouin F, Klinka T, Janniche GS, Albrechtsen HJ, Wuilleumier A, Gigleux S, Banton O. HYDRO - Climate and water cycle at the basin scale. In: Finkel, M., Barth, J., Grathwohl, P, ed. Advanced Tools and Models to Improve River Basin Management in Europe in the Context of Global Change: AquaTerra. London, UK: IWA Publishing, 2010, pp.3-12.
- Zambrano-Bigiarini M, Majone B, Bellin A, Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Hydrological Impacts of Climate Change on the Ebro River Basin. In: Barceló, D., Petrovic, M, ed. The Ebro River Basin. Berlin; New York: Springer, 2010, pp.47-75.
- Wilby RL, Fowler HJ. Regional Climate Downscaling. In: Fai, F., Lopez, A., New, M, ed. Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Publishing Ltd, 2010, pp.34-85.
- Burton A, Glenis V, Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Chen AS, Djordjevic S, Kilsby CG. Stochastic rainfall modelling for the assessment of urban flood hazard in a changing climate. In: BHS Third International Symposium:Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment. 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne.
- Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Supplement to: Brown S, Boorman P, McDonald R, Murphy J, 2009. Interpretation for use of surface wind speed projections from the 11-member Met Office Regional Climate Model ensemble. UK: Defra, 2010. UKCP Technical Note.
- Archer DR, Forsythe N, Fowler HJ, Shah SM. Sustainability of water resources management in the Indus Basin under changing climatic and socio economic conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2010, 14(8), 1669-1680.
- Blenkinsop S, Hallett S, Truckell I, Fowler HJ. The CREW project: Towards a toolkit for the use of probabilistic climate change projections. In: BHS Third International Symposium: Role of Hydrology in Managing Consequences of a Changing Global Environment. 2010, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
- Birkinshaw SJ, O'Donnell GM, Moore P, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Berry PAM. Using satellite altimetry data to augment flow estimation techniques on the Mekong River. Hydrological Processes 2010, 24(26), 3811-3825.
- Alexander LV, Tapper N, Zhang X, Fowler HJ, Tebaldi C, Lynch A. Climate extremes: progress and future directions. International Journal of Climatology 2009, 29(3), 317-319.
- Archer DR, Fowler HJ. Erratum to: Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan [Journal of Hydrology 361 (2008) 10-23] (DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.07.017). Journal of Hydrology 2009, 364(1-2), 200.
- Goderniaux P, Brouyere S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. How can large scale integrated surface - subsurface hydrological model be used to evaluate long term climate change impact on groundwater reserves. In: Wang, Y.X, ed. Calibration and Reliability in Groundwater Modeling: Managing Groundwater and the Environment. Wuhan, China: China University of Geosciences Press, 2009, pp.137-140.
- Goderniaux P, Brouyère S, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Therrien R, Orban P, Dassargues A. Large scale surface-subsurface hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on groundwater reserves. Journal of Hydrology 2009, 373(1-2), 122-138.
- Barth JAC, Grathwohl P, Fowler HJ, Bellin A, Gerzabek MH, Lair GJ, Barceló D, Petrovic M, Navarro A, Négrel Ph, Petelet-Giraud E, Darmendrail D, Rijnaarts H, Langenhoff A, De Weert J, Slob A, van der Zaan BM, Gerritse J, Frank E, Gutierrez A, Kretzschmar R, Gocht T, Steidle D, Garrido F, Jones KC, Meijer S, Moeckel C, Marsman A, Klaver G, Vogel T, Bürger C, Kolditz O, Broers HP, Baran N, Joziasse J, Von Tümpling W, van Gaans P, Merly C, Chapman A, Brouyere S, Batlle Aguilar J, Orban Ph, Tas N, Smidt H. Mobility, turnover and storage of pollutants in soils, sediments and waters: achievements and results by the EU project AquaTerra - A review. In: E. Lichtfouse, M. Navarrete, P. Debaeke, S. Véronique, C. Alberola, ed. Sustainable Agriculture. Netherlands: Springer, 2009, pp.857-871.
- Barth JAC, Grathwohl P, Fowler HJ, Bellin A, Gerzabek MH, Lair GJ, Barceló D, Petrovic M, Navarro A, Négrel Ph, Petelet-Giraud E, Darmendrail D, Rijnaarts H, Langenhoff A, de Weert J, Slob A, van der Zaan BM, Gerritse J, Frank E, Gutierrez A, Kretzschmar R, Gocht T, Steidle D, Garrido F, Jones KC, Meijer S, Moeckel C, Marsman A, Klaver G, Vogel T, Bürger C, Kolditz O, Broers HP, Baran N, Joziasse J, von Tümpling W, van Gaans P, Merly C, Chapman A, Brouyère S, Batlle Aguilar J, Orban Ph, Tas N, Smidt H. Mobility, turnover and storage of pollutants in soils, sediments and waters: achievements and results by the EU project AquaTerra. A review. Agronomy for Sustainable Development 2009, 29(1), 161-173.
- Fowler HJ, Ekström M. Multi-model ensemble estimates of climate change impacts on UK seasonal precipitation extremes. International Journal of Climatology 2009, 29(3), 385-416.
- Manning LJ, Hall JW, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Tebaldi C. Using probabilistic climate change information from a multimodel ensemble for water resources assessment. Water Resources Research 2009, 45(11), W11411.
- Fowler HJ, Bovolo CI, Blenkinsop S, Burton A, Bürger CM, Bellin A, Bigiarini MZ, Majone B, Alberici D, Barceló D, Grathwohl P, Barth J. Climate investigations on a river basin scale and prediction of pollutants: a success story from the Ebro basin. In: Proceedings of Water Scarcity and Management under Mediterranean Climate. 2008, Girona, Spain: ICRA: Catalan Institute for Water Research.
- Hall J, Kilsby C, Fowler H, Burton A. Climate models' value. New Scientist 2008, 201(2688), 16-16.
- Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Dubus IG, Nolan BT, Hollis JM. Developing climatic scenarios for pesticide fate modelling in Europe. Environmental Pollution 2008, 154(2), 219-231.
- Centofantia T, Hollis JM, Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ, Truckell I, Dubus I, Reichenberger S. Development of agro-environmental scenarios to support pesticide risk assessment in Europe. Science of the Total Environment 2008, 407(1), 574-588.
- Nolan BT, Dubus IG, Surdyk N, Fowler HJ, Burton A, Hollis JM, Reichenberger S, Jarvis NJ. Identification of key climatic factors regulating the transport of pesticides in leaching and to tile drains. Pest Management Science 2008, 64(9), 933-944.
- Burton A, Kilsby CG, Fowler HJ, Cowpertwait PSP, O'Connell PE. RainSim: A spatial-temporal stochastic rainfall modelling system. Environmental Modelling & Software 2008, 23(12), 1356-1369.
- Archer DR, Fowler HJ. Using meteorological data to forecast seasonal runoff on the River Jhelum, Pakistan. Journal of Hydrology 2008, 361(1-2), 10-23.
- Kilsby CG, Jones PD, Burton A, Ford AC, Fowler HJ, Harpham C, James P, Smith A, Wilby RL. A daily weather generator for use in climate change studies. Environmental Modelling and Software 2007, 22(12), 1705-1719.
- Fowler HJ, Wilby RL. Beyond the downscaling comparison study. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27(12), 1543-1545.
- Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Changes in drought frequency, severity and duration for the British Isles projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. Journal of Hydrology 2007, 342(1-2), 50-71.
- Blenkinsop S, Fowler HJ. Changes in European drought characteristics projected by the PRUDENCE regional climate models. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27(12), 1595-1610.
- Fowler HJ, Ekstrom M, Blenkinsop S, Smith AP. Estimating change in extreme European precipitation using a multimodel ensemble. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 2007, 112(D18), D18104.
- Burger CM, Kolditz O, Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S. Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain). Environmental Pollution 2007, 148(3), 842-854.
- Kilsby CG, Tellier SS, Fowler HJ, Howels TR. Hydrological impacts of climate change on the Tejo and Guadiana Rivers. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(3), 1175-1189.
- Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Tebaldi C. Linking climate change modelling to impacts studies: Recent advances in downscaling techniques for hydrological modelling. International Journal of Climatology 2007, 27(12), 1547-1578.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Stunell J. Modelling the impacts of projected future climate change on water resources in north-west England. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(3), 1115-1126.
- Ekström M, Jones PD, Fowler HJ, Lenderink G, Buishand A, Conway D. Regional climate model data used within the SWURVE project – 1: projected changes in seasonal patterns and estimation of PET. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2007, 11(3), 1069-1083.
- Gerzabek MH, Barceló D, Bellin A, Rijnaarts HHM, van Veen J, Darmendrail D, Fowler HJ, Négrel P, Frank E, Grathwohl P, Kuntz D, Barth JAC. The integrated project AquaTerra of the EU sixth framework lays foundations for better understanding of river–sediment–soil–groundwater systems. Journal of Environmental Management 2007, 84(2), 237–243.
- Gerzabek MH, Barceló D, Bellin A, Rijnaarts HHM, Slob A, Darmendrail D, Fowler HJ, Négrel P, Frank E, Grathwohl P, Kuntz D, Barth JAC. The integrated project AquaTerra of the EU sixth framework lays foundations for better understanding of river–sediment–soil–groundwater systems. Journal of Environmental Management 2007, 84(2), 237-243.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Using regional climate model data to simulate historical and future river flows in northwest England. Climatic Change 2007, 80(3-4), 337-367.
- Barth JAC, Freitag H, Fowler HJ, Karim A, Ingle C, McPhail C, Smith AP. Water fluxes and their control on the terrestrial carbon balance: Results from a stable isotope study on the Clyde Watershed (Scotland). Applied Geochemistry 2007, 22(12), 2684-2694.
- Fowler HJ, Blenkinsop S, Smith AP, Ekstrom M, Kilsby CG. Can regional climate models reproduce the historic magnitude and frequency of severe UK extreme rainfall events, and how will this change under global warming?. In: Proceedings of the British Hydrological Society 9th National Hydrology Symposium. 2006, Durham: British Hydrological Society.
- Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Conflicting Signals of Climatic Change in the Upper Indus Basin. Journal of Climate 2006, 19(17), 4276–4293.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE, Burton A. A weather-type conditioned multi-site stochastic rainfall model for the generation of scenarios of climatic variability and change. Journal of Hydrology 2005, 308(1-4), 50-66.
- Barth J, Fowler HJ. AquaTerra, a new Integrated Project in FP 6: Active since June 2004. Land Contamination and Reclamation 2005, 13(2), 201-205.
- Fowler HJ, Archer DR. Hydro-climatological variability in the Upper Indus Basin and implications for water resources. In: Regional Hydrological Impacts of Climatic Change: Impact Assessment and Decision Making. 2005, Foz do Iguaço, Brazil: International Association of Hydrological Sciences.
- Fowler HJ, Ekström M, Kilsby CG, Jones PD. New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 1. Assessment of control climate. Journal of Hydrology 2005, 300(1-4), 212-233.
- Ekström M, Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, Jones PD. New estimates of future changes in extreme rainfall across the UK using regional climate model integrations. 2. Future estimates and use in impact studies. Journal of Hydrology 2005, 300(1-4), 234-251.
- Archer D, Fowler HJ. Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2004, 8(1), 47-61.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. A regional frequency analysis of United Kingdom extreme rainfall from 1961 to 2000. International Journal of Climatology 2003, 23(11), 1313-1334.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Implications of changes in seasonal and annual extreme rainfall. Geophysical Research Letters 2003, 30(13), 1720.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE. Modeling the impacts of climatic change and variability on the reliability, resilience, and vulnerability of a water resource system. Water Resources Research 2003, 39(8), 1222.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. A weather-type approach to analysing water resource drought in the Yorkshire region from 1881 to 1998. Journal of Hydrology 2002, 262(1-4), 177-192.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG. Precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation: A study of climatic variability in Northern England. International Journal of Climatology 2002, 22(7), 843-866.
- Fowler HJ, Kilsby CG, O'Connell PE. A stochastic rainfall model for the assessment of regional water resource systems under changed climatic conditions. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2000, 4(2), 263-281.